Surprise, surprise, the U.S. and the EU managed to "survive" the winter, and Ukraine is still hanging on

 

There is no telling what people will do when faced with a “crisis.” In “underdeveloped” countries, they have been living in what we would call a “crisis” situation since historical records were kept, yet somehow they survive. In Europe, which received at least 40 percent of its natural gas imports from Russia in 2021, it was declared that a “crisis” was afoot once sanctions against Russia was put in place and gas imports were slashed by over half, with only those countries who maintained a “dialogue” with Russia who continued to receive gas imports.

In order to fill the gap, 62 percent of Europe’s natural and liquefied gas has come from Norway, the U.S., Qatar, Algeria and Nigeria. Because of warmer than normal temperatures, and a voluntary reduction of one degree Celsius off heating, savings of one-third off heating bills was achieved. Overall, Europeans managed to achieve 20 percent in energy savings, while countries like Germany looked the other way at cross-border “interconnections” for additional supplies.

The  UK was apparently an “outlier” in these efforts, with Bloomberg noting that in her brief tenure as prime minister, Liz Truss “pledged tens of billions of pounds to subsidize households’ energy bills for as long as two years. Her government made little effort to secure additional gas supplies while opposing measures to encourage conservation.” What else would we expect from pampered English-speaking countries? For now at least, the U.S. can supply most of its own energy needs while being a net exporter.

Bloomberg also noted that Russian efforts at energy blackmail turned out to be a catastrophic mistake, forcing Europe to seek out alternative sources away from a country that could no longer be trusted and was perceived as an enemy in the world order. Gazprom has been forced to sell its excess to countries like China and India at rock-bottom prices, the latter of which has turned around and resold the gas to other countries at a profit (which some suggest is a "backdoor" way for European countries to get Russian gas). Meanwhile, the Italian energy giant ENI has exploration plans that intend to replace a major portion of Russian gas by 2025.

It is still being said that these alternatives to Russian gas is not enough, and there still could be “catastrophic” consequences if there is also a warmer than normal summer, not just because of energy use for air conditioning, but water evaporation that would reduce the supply of water powering hydroelectric plants. While 90 percent of gas storage units were full heading into winter, much of that was Russian-imported, and that is now all gone. But will Europeans find a way to muster through this? Probably. Ukraine, however, is a different story.

Russian attempts to disrupt or destroy electrical infrastructure has of course had a major impact on the lives of Ukrainians, with in many places blackouts lasting for days or longer. Russia claims that in doing this and targeting apartment buildings with the help of Iranian “suicide” drones that it is not targeting civilians, is just another reason why anything coming out of the mouth of a Russian is worthy of only a frustrated eye-roll.  

How exactly are Ukrainians surviving the winter without reliable electricity, water or heating? Heating bricks to keep food warm, leaving cold food outside instead of in a refrigerator, melting snow for water, turning on gas ovens for heat. There are also many displaced persons who have not left the country, who depend almost solely on humanitarian assistance. However, in war zones where the Russians planted mines in farm fields, farmers look to spring planting at their own risk. Hospitals have had to find creative ways of keeping people alive in between electrical outages.

And of course there is the tens of billions of aid not just in civilian and military aid, but to cover massive Ukrainian government debt. One estimate is that this year $38 billion will be needed to keep Ukraine viable for the coming year. While this may sound like a lot, it is still a virtual drop in the bucket in comparison to the combined U.S. and EU countries total government budgets (not to mention less than the net worth of few of the world's richest men).  If anything, especially for NATO countries, they have at least discovered the limitations of their own military capabilities and the need for an "upgrade."

Of course this can’t last forever. Europeans will certainly survive this, and regardless of how the war ultimately ends, sanctions against Russia will likely continue as well as weaning off Russian gas in order to make them think twice about invading another country, which the U.S. and the EU failed to do in the aftermath of the Crimean invasion. Most of us want to see the Russians “defeated” in their unjustified invasion punctuated by war crimes, but it seems the “price” required is far from being paid int total by either side.

But at least we can say that it is possible for the countries aiding Ukraine to find ways to “survive” the war, and in the U.S., despite complaints by the far-right, hardly anyone has noticed any change in their situations that can be traced to aid to Ukraine.