Monday, January 13, 2014

NFC championship game a match-up between top-rated defenses and under-performing offenses


The Seattle Times is declaring the upcoming NFC championship game between Seattle and San Francisco a “dream” match-up, although considering the Seahawks' moribund offensive play this past month or so, there is the possibility that it could be more like a nightmare. Seattle isn’t a “sexy” team, but San Francisco is, so for the most part all you are going to hear about in the run-up to the game is the 49ers’ “playmakers.” Of course they can’t make “plays” if Colin Kaepernick can be controlled. In the 49ers win against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, Kaepernick again demonstrated that a competent pass defense can reduce him to what he is—at best an average passer who on occasion gets lucky. When the score was still only 13-10 in the third quarter, Kaepernick had completed just 11 of 24 passes, about par against a good defense for a quarterback who completed a near league-low 58 percent of his passes. He only threw four more passes the rest of the game, yet as seems to be the case for teams with under-producing offenses continuously bailed-out by their defenses, given enough opportunities Kaepernick somehow managed to make them all count.

Not that Carolina didn’t give him an occasional “assist,” of course. Remember when Cam Newton shocked the world when he threw for 400+ yards his first two games as a rookie? Since then he seems to have lost the “touch,” and when required to make the critical throw it is like expecting to see snake eyes in crap game. Postmortems of the game criticized Newton for "staring down" his primary receiver, instead of doing things like pump-faking or looking one way, then throwing the other. But this is a flaw in all of these new "option" quarterbacks; it is only talked about on the losing side. 

I’m not a Seahawks fan, but I don’t need to be one to dislike Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers. During Mike Holmgren’s tour as coach, the Green Bay Packers had the 49ers’ number; as I recall his only loss to them was his last game as Packer coach, 30-27 after a blown call on Jerry Rice’s fumble led to a game-winning touchdown in the waning moments. Holmgren didn’t seem too shook-up about missing an opportunity to go to the Super Bowl for a third straight season, joking about the fumble as if he could say it wasn’t really a loss without admitting that he was glad the season was over. The Seahawks were looking for a new coach and Holmgren knew he could get what he wanted from them if he was available—no time to lose. But under Mike McCarthy, the Packers have had far less success against the 49ers, losing four straight, twice in the playoffs. Knowing the Packers’ defensive deficiencies since the 2010 season, games against teams with “running” quarterbacks like Kaepernick have been among the few that there has been the element of doubt that Aaron Rodgers has the capacity to overcome them.

Despite the hype, it really shouldn’t be this way. The 49ers—much like the New York Jets this season—have been the beneficiary of far too much good fortune  than they deserve. No comebacks from 20-point deficits like the Seahawks, just 8-0 against teams with losing records and 4-4 against teams with winning records—of which 3 of those 4 wins decided by less than a touchdown. The 49ers, like the Seahawks, have on paper a top defense (the 5th ranked defense), but also modest offensive output (only the 24th ranked offense). While the Seahawks can account for their won-loss record by having the best turnover differential in the league, it is harder to explain the 49ers’ point differential of +134.

Since they seem evenly matched on paper, there ought to be the assumption that the Seahawks have the advantage by playing at home. But their offense may be even more uneven than the 49ers, and they have fewer “playmakers” on that side of the ball than the 49ers. Despite winning 29-3 in their first match-up of the season, the box score suggests that this was more due to the sloppy play of the 49ers, and the opportunism of the Seahawks. I have spoken of my belief that at this point Russell Wilson may be more liability in much the same way Robert Griffin III was in last season’s playoff game against the Seahawks, after he aggravated his knee injury in the first quarter. But my dislike of the 49ers is such that I hope that I am wrong about this, that Wilson has the best game he has played all season, because that may be what is required.

Meanwhile, the AFC championship game seems to be the rather more anticipated match-up between Peyton Manning and Bill Belichick. Tom Brady may opine for better pass receivers as an excuse as to why the team is averaging only a net 153 passing yards in the past three games when he has had all season to get on the same page with the current roster; but also in the past three games he has discovered that the Patriots actually have a rushing attack. New England is averaging 214 yards on the ground in those three games, and keeping Manning off the field in a grind-it-out fashion may be the optimal way for beating Denver on the road.


One point in the Patriots’ favor is the fact Manning was as usual less than stellar in the playoff win against the San Diego Chargers, and the outcome might have been different had Phillip Rivers shown some life in the first three quarters of the game. In the last meeting between these two teams, the Patriots spotted the Broncos 24 points in a mistake-filled first half, but then blew them away as the defense held Manning to his worst game in years. As a confirmed Manning hater, I’m hoping that Belichick again has the defensive plan that brings him back down to Earth, and hard.

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