Tuesday, July 24, 2012

The end of an era

The Ichiro Era is over in Seattle. After months of speculating if the Ichiro from pre-2011 would miraculously reemerge, the team and fans have come to the conclusion that the taciturn Ichiro was part of the problem and not the solution to the team’s continuing hitting woes. His past success had no relation to the team’s future. He always seemed by on another team anyways—his own—and this was tolerated so long he collected his 200 hits and remained the team’s only position player with any “stature” in the league. The exotic factor didn’t hurt either; Ichiro was not just the first Japanese player, but the first Asian player to “master” American baseball on its native turf. There was also a time when Ichiro and his Ed Norton-like gyrations before each at-bat had an intimidation factor for opposing pitchers; now, it just looks like a snow-job.

Ichiro is now in a Yankees uniform, and who says there isn’t enough celebrity to go around in New York? I’m sure Alex Rodriguez doesn’t mind seeing some of the media hounds gravitate to Ichiro. And Ichiro certainly isn’t shy about expressing his inner thoughts with those pinstripes on: “I am going from a team with the most losses to a team with the most wins, so it’s been hard to contain my excitement in that regard.” Yeah? Just wait until he reads about what Post writers say about him when the team discovers that they’ve been conned about the “speed” he’ll provide. There has always been some speculation up here whether Ichiro understands or can speak English after spending seven months out of the year for 12 years in this country. But if he does, he chose not to impress the New York press with it, and expressed the above opinion through an interpreter. Some people make speculate that his apparent disinterest in learning English also reflects the self-satisfaction of being apart from the rest. But increasing talk about how to force Ichiro out “gracefully,” and Jay Buhner’s “I wanna vomit” comment when the subject of another lucrative contract for Ichiro, made clear to him that people in Seattle were no longer in “awe” of him, and regarded him as little more than a flat tire on the team bus that wouldn’t take any more air.

Obviously, Mariner management eager to cut ties with Ichiro while not offending his sensitivities couldn’t do much better than trading him to the Yankees, and make him their problem. Ichiro clearly wants to continue playing until he reaches the 3,000-hit level, and unless the Fountain of Youth is somewhere in Japan, it is going to take more at-bats than his next employer is may be willing to give him (he averaged 733 plate appearances a year for 11 years with the Mariners). Mariner team CEO Howard Lincoln, putting a curious spin on the trade, said that Ichiro “deserves a chance to play for a contending team before the end of his magnificent career. The Mariners should certainly not stand in his way.” How magnanimous of him. Most fans around here would probably say that winning was less important to Ichiro than his next single. Others might call it “loyalty,” but if that was a factor, it was more to his relationship with Hiroshi Yamauchi, chairman of majority owner Nintendo; Yamauchi, interestingly, never attended a Mariner game in person.

So what do they think in New York about the Ichiro trade? Is it something more than a publicity gimmick? David Waldstein of the New York Times noted that while fan’s here “still respected Suzuki here, (they) had come to realize that he was a vestige of another era. While most saluted Suzuki, some chanted for the Yankees to ‘Take Figgins, too,’ a reference to Chone Figgins and his four-year, $36 million contract.” While observing that Ichiro was “gleeful” about the move after 10 straight seasons of not making playoffs, the reality of the situation could not be avoided for long. Waldstein noted Yankee manager Joe Girardi placed him eighth in the batting line-up, where he will apparently remain for the time being. “Sometimes, you need to create a run,” Girardi is quoted as saying. “And his defense is going to be outstanding, and we’re excited about that as well.” Yet placing him down near the bottom of the batting order was a tacit acknowledgement that putting him anywhere higher at his current production rate is a detriment to the team. The Yankees “hope that Suzuki will be revitalized playing for a potential playoff team for the first time in 11 years.” For a slap hitter whose success is dependent on his speed, that may be a tall order. The Yankees gave-up two nothing minor leaguers for Ichiro; perhaps what the team really “hopes” for is some return on their previous trade with the Mariners for pitcher Michael Pineda, who showed-up out-of-shape to training camp, and has been on the DL ever since.

Being a statistics zealot, I was curious about how Ichiro stacked-up substantively against players of a similar mold currently in the Hall of Fame. I thought a fair comparison could be made with Rod Carew, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs and Ricky Henderson. Save for Henderson, all had-comparable career batting averages with Ichiro. However, all had higher on-base averages, slugging percentages and OPS. But Ichiro holds two significant MLB records: 262 single season hits and 10 straight 200+ hit seasons. Perhaps there is something missing in this evaluation. So I made-up some statistics for a more useful comparison:

Hits and Walks Per Game. I wanted to know to how many times each of these players got on base by legitimate means per game, not by error or fielder’s choice.

Carew: 1.65

Gwynn: 1.61

Boggs: 1.81

Henderson: 1.70

Ichiro: 1.65

Runs Per Game. I concocted this by adding runs scored and runs batted in, and subtracting home runs, since they count for both a run scored and an RBI.

Carew: .94

Gwynn: .98

Boggs: .99

Henderson: 1.01

Ichiro: .93

Just for fun, I decided that it would be interesting to know how times per game that these players hit themselves into scoring position by extra-base hit, or stole a base to do so. To pad the stats, I included home runs:

Carew: .41

Gwynn: .44

Boggs: .32

Henderson: .74

Ichiro: .49

Some observations: One thing we can see right off is that Ricky Henderson, despite his .279 career batting average, was a more efficient run-producer by far than the others on this list. Ichiro, by a small margin over Carew, was the least efficient. The explanation for Henderson’s huge advantage in placing himself in scoring position were those 1,406 steals and his greater power. What did surprise me is that Ichiro was ahead in that category over Carew, Gwynn and Boggs. The answer is that even though since his “rookie” season his stolen bases have been an now-and-then occurrence, he is still considered a “base stealer” when these other players were not; in fact, Boggs stole only 24 bases his entire career—and was caught stealing more often (35). In Ichiro’s defense, he rarely had the benefit of middle-of-the-lineup power. If Ichiro’s stats are otherwise comparable to these Hall of Famers, there is one caveat: In an era where 500 homeruns is not considered with as much reverence as it once was, shouldn’t we expect something more than a slap hitter who lived off of running out infield grounders? If Ichiro didn’t have the speed that he once had, would we even be talking footnote? Do the Yankees have a declawed Ichiro, the player we saw last year who in 677 official at-bats managed a career-low 30 extra base hits out of 184, and a measly OPS of .645—and doing no better this season?

No comments:

Post a Comment