Packers blow double-digit fourth quarter lead in both offensive and defensive meltdown

 

In Week 2, the Packers seemed to be at the point of another blowout win that was more an impression than it was on paper, before a fourth quarter that was an utter disaster both offensively and defensively in a 25-24 loss to a highly beatable Falcons team in a game that revealed quite a few weaknesses of the Packers that were largely masked in against a terrible Bears team last week.

Now, I admit that it is unfair to Jordan Love to make undue comparisons of his talent based on wins and losses. While Brett Favre had only one losing season with the Packers—the 2005 season with 6 losses decided by a total of 12 points—the Packers had a “surprising” 4 losing seasons during the Aaron Rodgers era, and, again, only one Super Bowl appearance in his third season as a starter. Ultimately, what we have to determine is whether Love is playing “smart”—meaning not making mistakes—and consistently moves the chains to determine his "value" moving forward.  

Although Rodgers generally avoided “mistakes,” that also meant he didn’t always consistently move the ball, even during those 13-win seasons. This was borne out in the playoffs, when he played too “conservative” and focused on his “favorite” receiver who was generally blanketed in coverage. 

Rodgers thus didn't always play "smart," in fact his only “perfect” QB rating game (158.3) came in a 2019 win against the Raiders, 25 of 31 for 429 yards and 5 TDs. Who wasn’t on the field due to injury? His “favorite” target, Davante Adams. On the other hand, not having that All-Pro receiver around is seen as a “positive” for Love, who instead of focusing on one receiver, was seen against the Bears spreading the field to force defenses to cover more of it.

But is that really showing on the field? On the Packers first possession of this game they picked up 44 yards on a pass interference call, then a false start penalty and an incomprehensible delay of game penalty, which convinced Matt LaFleur to go “conservative” and forgo a 55-yard field goal attempt that was certainly in Anders Carlson’s range, instead punting the ball from the Atlanta 38-yard line, which tumbled uneventfully into the end zone for a touchback. That “decision” turned out to be a critical mistake.

Not a good start to the game, and like last week against the Bears, Love and the Packers offense appeared sluggish most of the time in the first half, with Love making one decent play on third-and-10, running for 24 yards enroute to an eventual TD, after a fourth-and-one was reversed to a first down. Despite the Falcons piling up yards, a loss on downs and an interception allowed the Packers to enter the half with another slim 10-9 lead, and in the third quarter it seemed like the Bears game all over again as the Packers scored two TDs, one aided by another 43-yard pass interference call.

But that was all surface. On the Packers five non-scoring drives (not including the kneel-down before the half), they ran all of three plays on four and failed to gain a yard on the last possession on four incomplete passes, while the only Falcons’ drive of under 8 plays (not including the final kneel-down) was stopped by an interception. In this way the Packers blew a 24-12 fourth quarter lead while the defense was being worn down, as the Falcons, after kicking what turned out to be the game-winning field goal, had doubled-up the Packers in total yards 447-224, and plays 77-43.

The defense also failed to stop the Falcons on three of four fourth down plays, including a critical one as the Falcons were driving for that winning score. Desmond Ridder is not the greatest quarterback on the planet, yet he—not Love—made the plays in the fourth quarter. The Packers blew all their timeouts at the 1:47 mark, and you knew if the Falcons took the lead, there was no Rodgers there to throw a miracle Hail Mary pass, which was one thing he was good at.

Still, with just under a  minute to play you expected something more than Love misfiring on all four passes, which certainly calls into question his “smarts” when it comes to when the game is on the line and the pressure is the greatest, which is something that was never really in your mind when Rodgers was in there, even at his worst.

Love again demonstrated he cannot accurately throw deep balls; he threw six deep balls the entire game, two resulting in those penalties and the other four uncatchable. On the last drive why throw a bunch of deep balls when you still have a minute to get into field goal range? You got a kicker with a leg. How much does dumb-playing calling come into it?

Or was the "pressure" too much? Last week he was lucky on that fumbled snap; this week he botched a quarterback sneak in the fourth quarter by calling the wrong play. 

Love again had a “decent” game if you go by the QB rating. Three TD passes are OK, but only 151 yards passing (140 net) and only 84 yards on the ground is a pretty lousy offensive performance even given the “gift” 87 yards on those two pass interference calls. Granted, things would have been different if Aaron Jones was in the game, but you expect a “franchise” quarterback to be able to operate enough under the “pressure” of at least moving the ball a little bit and wind-down some clock in the fourth quarter when you have a double-digit lead.

The Packers can't afford to lose games they should win, and this was a winnable game that the Packers should have won, but now we have questions about not just Love, but LaFleur’s play-calling, and the defense’s ability to make up for offensive inabilities by forcing turnovers when playing against young, not particularly experienced quarterbacks. Next week the Packers play at home against a Saints team that looks “beatable” on paper, but now I’m not so sure about where this Packers team is.