There was a football game last night, between two teams whose seasons can be said to be on the disappointing side. Of course for Rams fans, there is still some consolation in the fact that their team won the Super Bowl last year, which is one more than 12 other teams in NFL history. Matthew Stafford doesn’t exactly have a history where you can expect to be a playoff contender every year; he certainly didn’t inspire high expectations with the Lions, and last year you just got the impression that he and Rams got “lucky,” which this season seems bear out.
For the Packers, you get the feeling they had their shot and blew it. In the last years of Mike McCarthy’s tenure, Aaron Rodgers seemed either disinterested or losing his “touch.” A new coach and philosophy seemed to breathe new life into an old shell, yet in each of the past three years the season ended with it not being entirely clear whether it was the spirit or the body that was unwilling. What we did learn was that once again, Rodgers was no Tom Brady; Brady would shake people up to get their fundaments in gear, while Rodgers just pouted and complained.
Anyways, the Packers beat the Rams yesterday 24-12, no big surprise since the Rams were 3-6 even with Stafford playing, and there were no miracles this time with Baker Mayfield, who just seems to be one of those quarterbacks coaches don’t trust and have to keep on a leash to keep to a minimum their opportunities to make mistakes. The Rams offense was horrible, with just 156 yards of total offense. On the other hand, while Rodgers didn’t have a bad game, it wasn’t a particularly good one, either—throwing for 229 yards, one touchdown and this interception…
…which may not have been entirely his fault, as he and Allen Lazard looked like they were on two different routes. In any case, Rodgers remains on pace for his lowest season QB rating as a starter. Romeo Doubs returned from injury and had an OK game, probably at the expense of Christian Watson whose streak of four straight games scoring a touchdown ended. Aaron Jones gained 90 yards and is 63 yards shy of his third 1,000-yard rushing season, although not anywhere near Ahman Green’s team-record numbers (or Jim Taylor’s, for that matter).
So the burning question is…do the Packers still have a shot at the playoffs after winning two in a row? Well, yes if you believe in miracles, and no if you don’t. Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs in the current format, with only the number one seed getting a bye. Right now, four teams—the Eagles, Cowboys, Vikings and the 49ers have clinched playoff spots in the NFC. Technically only three teams—the Bears, Cardinals and the defending Super Bowl champion Rams—have been eliminated.
That leaves only two playoff spots really up for grabs, since a fifth spot must go to the winner of the NFC South division, of which all the teams have losing records—including the Buccaneers, who currently have the “edge” despite a 6-8 record. At the moment the Giants and Commanders are holding the remaining spots, and although the Giants seem more likely to hold on to theirs, they still have to play the Eagles and the Vikings on the road. Two other teams—the (surprising) Lions and the Seahawks—have one more win than the Packers.
For a “miracle” to happen, the Packers must win their remaining games, against the Dolphins, Vikings and Lions, which will leave them with a 9-8 record. The Commanders currently have two losable games against the 49ers and Cowboys, which leaves the Packers ahead of them in this scenario. If both the Seahawks and Packers are tied for a remaining spot, the Packers would make the playoffs due to a better conference record. Then the Packers have to hope the Lions split their next two games and then beat them in the season finale, because with a tied record things get a little messy in the confusing tie-breaker system.
The Packers have to beat the Lions because they already lost to them earlier in the season, and a second loss would make a tied record irrelevant. If both teams split the season series and wind-up with 9-8 records, they will also be tied with 4-2 division and 7-5 conference records (presuming the Lions beat the Bears). They would also be 3-5 each in their “common” games. That will leave strength of victory in all games, and right now the Lions have the edge in that. The Seahawks could still make things interesting, since they beat the Lions and would have the edge over them in the event of a tied record, but then the Packers would still have a better conference record than the Seahawks. I’m not even going to try to guess how the “winner” is derived in that scenario.
In any event, none of the five teams fighting for the remaining two playoff spots in the NFC (if we include the Packers, and not the 5-win teams not yet eliminated) seem to have a clear shot at running the table—and that includes the Packers, who play the Dolphins on the road and at home against the Vikings. There is always a “chance” of course, but two wins against bad teams is one thing, and three against two good teams and one that is improving should put the playoff chances of the team in its proper “perspective”—meaning in the “don’t believe in miracles” camp.
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