Will Putin call in for “reinforcements” from the human “cockroach”?

 

The stories about Russian troops coming out of Ukraine paint a sorry picture if they are at all true. The Daily Beast is reporting on a story of how Russians troops are “clueless” about why they are in Ukraine, and some are refusing to fight. Pravda even admits that 300 soldiers in one unit simply walked away with their equipment in the city of Sumy in northeastern Ukraine; the same outlet reported nearly 10,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and 16,000 wounded before removing the post, claiming its website had been “hacked” into. Reports indicate that many Russian soldiers are suffering from frostbite, and only have a few days’ worth of food and ammunition. The British tabloid Express claims that it is “waiting for confirmation” that the Ukrainian army is near “erasing” an “entire” Russian army it has encircled in the Bucha-Irpin-Hostomel area near Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Chechen mercenaries deployed by pro-Putin tough guy Ramzan Kadyrov have been tasked to engage in assassinating Ukrainian officials, shooting on sight any Russian soldiers they see abandoning their posts (since it is bad for morale if Russian soldiers were to kill each other in a war hardly any of them understand) and gleefully engage in atrocious behavior (or is it atrocities?) which they share on social media via their cell phones. Fortunately, word is getting out that the Chechens themselves appear to have suffered such heavy losses that they don’t have much time for any fun—those who are still alive have to return eventually to forestall any coup attempt against their psycho leader—who like Putin misjudged the Ukrainian combat capabilities.

The FSB, meanwhile, is near munity with two its top leaders under house arrest, and a “whistleblower” has reported that FSB agents have provided secret information to the Ukrainians, including the location of assassination cells. Further, Russian generals are also becoming “concerned” that they will be made to take the sword for Putin’s failure; it remains to be seen if enough of them and others in Putin’s circle feel brave enough to depose Putin. For now, the Russian troops around Kyiv are digging in, planting land mines in their forward positions while they wait to be resupplied. Attacks against “soft” targets, like unarmed civilians, continues unabated.

Of course if Putin needs a friend who still has some authority (meaning not Donald Trump); he can always turn to French president Emmanuel Macron, who is always good for a laugh when Putin needs a fool. The Russian propaganda/”news” agency TASS reported on Wednesday that Macron assured the French public “not to panic” because "We are not involved in the war…I want to stress we will never be a side of this conflict and Europeans will do everything to stop the hostilities without getting involved." Remember that Macron announced that Putin had informed him that he had no plans to invade Ukraine just days before he did, and Macron “the statesman” didn’t take the hint and is still playing the naïve village idiot being played.

So if Macron won’t take sides—and at least that is what Russians are being told—is there another Putin stooge willing to do what he is told to help out in the fight? Despite all the hypocrisy coming out of Chinese diplomats’ mouths—alleged “respect” for state sovereignty and the outrageous assertion that Russians are “suffering” as much as the Ukrainians—China doesn’t want to appear to be too overtly supporting the invasion which it is likely following as a blue print for its own invasion plans in Taiwan.

There is, however, a Putin stooge who may be willing to do what he is told. This past February, Yasmeen Serhan wrote in The Atlantic that “In the space of a month Vladimir Putin has effectively managed to transform a former Soviet state into an extension of Russian territory, in full view of the United States and Europe, without firing a single shot in the country.” She was talking, of course, about Belarus. 

In 2021, John Oliver did a profile of Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko 1  which revealed him to be a dangerous clown, one of those people who if they don’t actually “see” something, it doesn’t exist (i.e. Covid-19). Lukashenko made many promises in his early years that made him into some kind of “rock star” in the eyes of Belarusians. But Lukashenko’s promise to combat corruption fell apart only months into his presidency, mostly unreported because of enforced media blackouts and persecution of journalists; Lukashenko, in fact, has only managed to become the poster boy of corruption. 

When Lukashenko clamped down on street protests in 2012, a few enterprising political opponents staged a stuffed animal protest, which led to arrests: 

 

Lukashenko has also been satirized as a cockroach, and he even felt compelled to call a news conference to protest against such imagery: 

 

But the reason why Lukashenko is now a threat to Ukraine is not because he feels Ukraine is any threat to Belarus or even himself, but because like Kadyrov he is an authoritarian who owes his very survival to Putin. As Serhan observes in the Atlantic article, “the country captured the world’s attention after a rigged presidential election (in 2020) ensuring the continued reign of its longtime leader, Alexander Lukashenko, sparked some of the largest prodemocracy protests in Belarusian history. He survived with the help of the Russian government, which provided him with the police forces to quash the demonstrations and the financing to overcome the West’s sanctions. Suddenly, a nation that purported to be neutral (military neutrality is built into the Belarusian constitution) and whose leader often complains of Russian overreach came to be seen around the world as a vassal state.” 

In the last month, the Belarusian constitution was “modified” to allow a permanent Russian military presence, as if anyone thought that Lukashenko was fool enough to take on NATO himself. Despite the fact that he is now nothing more than a Putin puppet, he will be allowed to stay a figurehead president of a client state as long as he can clamp down on anti-Russian dissent—which if it becomes a “problem” will likely lead to a Russian invasion of Belarus. Lukashenko still has delusions of grandeur, clearly intending his rule to be the beginning of a family “dynasty” akin to North Korea, since as Oliver notes, his son always seems to be by his side, apparently to learn how to be a corrupt authoritarian like his old man.

In order for this “dynasty” to survive, Lukashenko needs  the threat of Russian power to keep the people in line to bolster his own repressive activities (Oliver shows a man demonstrating torture techniques on a Belarusian journalist that included stripping him naked in a warehouse freezer). The assumption now is that Putin will likely call in his marker and order Lukashenko to enter the war, which he is also likely to comply with, if reluctantly; the joint military exercises in Belarus can now be seen as an effort to prepare the Belarusian military for such an eventuality. 

In in its three decades of existence, it took but two short years for Belarus to change from a neutral buttress against Russian aggression in Europe, to now being Putin’s partner in it. If in fact Lukashenko does decide to send forces into Ukraine, then this must be seen both as an escalation in the conflict and a new danger to the European “order,” since Belarus will have seeded its “sovereignty” to Russia and put adversarial Russian forces directly on the eastern European frontier yet again.