As much as international sanctions are hurting Russia, a quick victory—Vladimir Putin assumed it would be merely a matter of days—probably would have been seen as a fait accompli by many European leaders and sanctions would have been less harsh. But because the strength of Ukrainian resistance “surprised” many Europeans and the war has dragged on for weeks without any apparent victory in sight for the Russians, stronger sanctions could now be seen as delivering a one-two punch to the gut of Putin’s ambitions.
But then if you are French president Emmanuel Macron, you might be under the illusion that it is your “statesmanship” that has brought Russia to the negotiating table. As seen in a previous summit between the two leaders, the “negotiating table” fittingly reveals the gulf between illusion and reality:
Like a true Frenchman, Macron’s conceits only confirm the notion of French snobbery. Macron had the audacity to try to be “friends” with both Donald Trump and Putin; he failed with the former because he met his match with the narcissistic Trump, who just saw Macron as a little man with delusions of grandeur, just like he does most other people. Macron may not be “little,” but he does suffer from those delusions, as we have seen in his attempts to “reason” with Putin; what Macron doesn’t realize is that Putin clearly has little more respect for him than Trump did.
Back at a NATO conference in 2019, Macron charged that the organization no longer had a clear “purpose” in response to Trump’s complaint that most NATO countries were not paying their “fair share” for defense, meaning at least 2 percent of their national budgets. Like Germany, France was willing to “work” with Putin even after the Crimea annexation if there was economic benefit; but while Germany made a U-turn following the invasion of Ukraine, Macron has sought to minimize the “damage” by groveling and pleading on hands and knees for Putin to stop his war. Macron clearly doesn’t “get it” yet that Putin’s Russia wants to be the adversary--if it cannot be the strongman--of the rest of Europe, because of Putin’s own delusions of grandeur.
Evidence of “ordinary” French delusion is that Macron is expected to just squeak by to reelection in April because he is seen as being a “statesman,” or at least he has convinced the electorate that he is one. Of course the alternative is the candidate of the fascist party, Marine Le Pen—who has lavished praise on Putin in the past—so it really isn’t a pick-your-poison choice; asking why someone like Le Pen would even be close to being elected the president of a “civilized” country probably isn’t completely fair, since this country elected someone like Trump, who recent polling suggests would defeat Joe Biden in a rematch (how quickly people forget).
So what has Macron the “statesman” accomplished? From the beginning of the year he has been having discussions with Putin to ratchet down tensions toward Ukraine. To wit:It was reported on February 8 that Macron was had reached a deal with Putin to forestall military operations against Ukraine. Of course Putin had for some time been “explaining” that the Russian troop build-up near the Ukrainian border was merely an “exercise,” but according to Macron, Putin told him that he had no intention of “initiating” a military “escalation” against Ukraine, and there wouldn’t be any permanent Russian military presence in Belarus. Whatever the gullible Macron heard in private, it was vociferously denied almost immediately by the Kremlin that Putin made any such “concession.”
February 22: The British newspaper The Times reported that “President Macron has been left red-faced (again) after his much touted diplomatic efforts failed to persuade Russia to de-escalate in the Ukraine crisis. President Putin recognized the independence of Ukraine’s breakaway regions yesterday just hours after his French counterpart had announced brokering US-Russian peace talks.” A few days later came the full scale invasion of Ukraine on three fronts. The Wall Street Journal observed that despite his failure to achieve concessions from the Russians, just to see him “strutting on the world stage has allowed Mr. Macron to cement his status as a statesman at a time when analysts say voters are seeking a steady hand.”
Macron being played for a fool (a common refrain from his detractors) by Putin hasn’t stopped the “lines of communication” between them, since Putin needs Macron for domestic consumption purposes. But according to Clea Caulcutt in a Politico report on March 10, Macron “hasn’t been able to demonstrate any sign of having influenced Putin’s behavior,” and Putin seemed confident enough of his “friendship” with Macron to believe that he would believe conspiracy tales about “human shields” and “Nazis,” although to his credit Macron wasn’t buying into that line.
Then Putin—apparently for domestic consumption—claimed that Macron had “agreed” to a plan to humanitarian corridors that lead only to Russia, where refugees would likely be left in concentration camps and probably never allowed to return home. This time it was Macron’s turn to be in denial mode, claiming he never made such a statement. But as Politico noted. Macron has been digging his own hole: “Some have pointed out that Macron has sometimes echoed Kremlin talking points, referring to Russia’s ‘contemporary traumas’” in order to foster greater “understanding” of Putin’s mindset—which of course ignores Putin’s “greater Russia” plans.
However, the idea of Russia joining in a super-duper pan-European confederation as both Macron and Putin have suggested (from “Lisbon to Vladivostok”) might be motivated by completely different assumptions—with France in Putin’s mind being a (very) junior partner in a political entity that means to crack what unity the West has and subvert it under the control of Moscow and what it wants (such as viewing the U.S. as the “enemy”) and making it even more vulnerable to Russian energy blackmail, and why not—of the nuclear weapon variety.
Politico goes on: “In his diplomatic outreach, Macron has sometimes appeared to be trying to compensate for past mistakes—or to draw some meager dividend from years of seeking to engage with Russia.” Macron even accused those in his own foreign affairs ministry of being “deep state” operatives opposed to Russian aggrandizement. “Many think Macron has preferred to listen to politicians who were nostalgic for past French global influence and who were too soft on Russia, such as former ministers Hubert Védrine and Jean-Pierre Chevènement.”
But as the director at the European Council on Foreign Affairs, Marie Dumoulin, observed, no one really understands—especially Macron—the “rationality” in Putin’s actions, or that there is a different rationality than the one that drives Western policy. This lack of understanding makes it appear that the French are in favor of appeasing Putin without really understanding his end game.
Putin may have played Macron for a fool whether he knows it or not, but he won’t give up, like a contestant on "Wheel of Fortune" who usually "wins" the prize box that is empty instead of keeping the cash. In the meantime, Macron has pushed for sanctions if only because he is angry that Putin made him look like an idiot. Furthermore, Macron is loath to acknowledge Putin’s and his military’s war crimes in Ukraine; in Chinese fashion he has criticized the U.S.’ contention that Putin has committed such crimes.
Of course Putin’s own whining about this is like a bully beating on a 90-pound weakling and then complaining that his victim is hurting his hand. But Macron is claiming rather self-servingly that "I wouldn't use this type of wording because I continue to hold discussions with President Putin. We want to stop the war that Russia has launched in Ukraine without escalation -- that's the objective."
Or the illusion. Reports are now that the Russians are not actually “deescalating” but repositioning forces around Kyiv, and Putin’s reaction to a letter passed on to him from Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggesting a possible peace plan was "Tell him I will thrash them"—suggesting that Putin is not negotiating in good faith and is just biding his time. The reality is that if Macron sees himself as a “statesman,” he has made a pretty poor showing of it so far with thousands of Ukrainian civilians killed and millions more displaced. The reality is that the Ukrainian military has given Macron more time than he deserves to roll those double sixes and claim “victory” for himself.
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