Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Like in everything else, in foreign policy Trump is a man without a plan

 

I really don’t want to reflect on past history and what-ifs, but I’m still a bit irritated about what went down in 2016, starting with the Democratic primaries. When Hillary Clinton was secretary of state, it seemed to me that she was just on a four-year paid foreign holiday at tax-payer expense. She allegedly set a “record” for visiting the most foreign countries, and to what purpose, who knows. Maybe she just wanted to get “even” with Barack Obama and insure he had no diplomatic “victories,” at least while she had any say it. Her successor, John Kerry, was successful in forging deals with Iran, on climate change and a Pacific partnership as a trade bulwark against China--all of which Donald Trump decided to rescind out of sheer petty personal spite.

But what has the current secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, been doing with his time? This former far-right fanatic from the House “Freedom Caucus” with no apparent aptitude for “diplomacy” has been virtually invisible these past two years, except when he pops out for the occasional partisan political statement that has nothing to do with his “job,” or threatens his own “October Surprise” by dumping Clinton’s emails (frankly, I’d rather see his). Even Jared Kushner took all the “credit” for the recent diplomatic recognition deals between Israel and a couple of Gulf states.

There are, of course, consequences for doing nothing of import. Trump recently defended the lack of any progress in a denuclearization deal with North Korea by boasting “Where’s the war?” Trump’s knowledge of history is somewhat fuzzy, since the Korean War ended in 1952, and there hasn’t been a “war” since then. However, what has been happening, as the AP reported, is that

Despite Trump’s three meetings with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader is expanding his arsenal. This month, Im rolled out a shiny new, larger intercontinental ballistic missile during a nighttime parade in Pyongaying. Arms experts said that the missile could possibly fire multiple nuclear warheads at the United States. It serves as reminder that despite Trump’s boasts, North Korea remains one of the biggest dangers to U.S. national security.

Meanwhile, The Center For Strategic and International Studies reports that the U.S. under Trump is allowing U.S. strategic influence in the former Yugoslavian states to evaporate due to lack of interest, with serious consequences. “Russia’s primary interest in the Balkans sometimes seems to be thwarting the United States/making it look bad, in part to demonstrate to Ukraine and other post-Soviet states the negative consequences of partnering with the United States. For Washington, conversely, the Balkans have become a policy backwater.

There are of course other issues, particularly those dealing with renewed nuclear proliferation, but the Trump administration appears to be just doing its own “thing,” not just ignoring what Russia is doing, but conversely being both a concern to Russia because of a lack of an apparent foreign policy agenda in the U.S., and a boon, because the Trump administration appears to be completely uncomprehending of the damage it is doing to U.S. interests and credibility.

Reuters is reporting that Vladimir Putin appears to be hedging his bets on whether it is useful for him to say nice things about Trump. You would think, of course, that since Trump claims to be Putin’s “friend,” that friendship would lead to bi-lateral agreements on a number of troubling complications. But that hasn’t happened; Trump’s reduction of U.S. troop strength in Germany and from northern Syria certainly could have been seen as a “positive” gesture toward Russia, but Trump never asked for anything in return, so Russia saw no reason to reciprocate in kind, such as backing-off in its interference in Ukraine’s sovereignty.

According to Reuters, during a televised question-and-answer session this past Sunday, Putin refused to “confirm” the conspiracy theories of Trump and his stooges concerning Hunter Biden’s dealings in the Ukraine. In fact he denied that he saw anything illegal going on. "Yes, in Ukraine he [Hunter Biden] had or maybe still has a business, I don't know. It doesn't concern us. It concerns the Americans and the Ukrainians. But well yes he had at least one company, which he practically headed up, and judging from everything he made good money. I don't see anything criminal about this, at least we don't know anything about this [being criminal]."

Putin also appeared to become angry when questioned about Trump’s claim that there was a “connection” between him, Hunter Biden and the former mayor of Moscow and his widow. Putin denied he knew anything about any financial deals involving Biden. Putin clearly does not want to appear to be “helping” Trump personally if Joe Biden wins the election. That doesn’t mean that Russia isn’t interfering in the election; the recent indictments of members of Russia’s military intelligence on computer hacking and misinformation charges plainly shows that something is going on. But what we also plainly see is that in relation to North Korea and Russia, Trump and Pompeo have not only done little to advance U.S. foreign policy interests, but they are increasingly being viewed as pointless in dealing with.

The truth of the matter is that Trump is a lazy man. Sure he has a big mouth, but it is always someone else doing his dirty work behind the scenes, like Roy Cohn or Michael Cohen before, and Stephen Miller and William Barr now. Trump claims he supports an “America First” policy, but that is just how he rationalizes his own laziness and refusal to be the leader of the free world, since he can’t deal with allied nations whose leaders are more competent and intelligent than he is. In being so, Trump has made the world a more dangerous place for U.S. interests; he has shown time and again that if he can’t get his way, he just pouts in his corner or tweets insults and turns friends into enemies. Inviting tin-pot dictators like Hungary's Orban (apologies to Romania, I think) for no apparent reason save for photo ops is not advancing U.S. interests; it is again symptomatic of a man with no “plan.”

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