With all the troubles plaguing
this planet, is there any hope of removing oneself to a distant universe that
isn’t a product of one’s imagination? Back in 1969, we were supposed to be
exploring the outer planets by 2001; it seems that we are a bit behind
schedule, although back then it seemed as if after traveling to the moon and
back it was just another “easy” step beyond. But Richard Nixon decided to
cancel the Apollo program in 1973, despite the fact that future missions had
already been paid for. An army of 100,000 engineers and aerospace workers
eventually left NASA, leaving an undermanned and underbudgeted agency that was left
with the Space Shuttle program, which
had significant design problems that led to two shuttle disasters in which all
members of the crew were killed.
Beyond that, the space program
has revolved around the International Space Station, largely controlled by the
Russians, since after the end of the Space Shuttle program it is the only
country with the capacity to regularly resupply it. Nothing much happens up
there anyways, except for make-work experiments that have no real application
back on Earth, to justify its existence and expense.
Nevertheless, we can still have
our fantasies. In 2004, George Bush announced a grand vision for the future of
NASA, called the “Constellation” program, which would include a new manned
spacecraft called Orion, a return to the moon and an eventual manned mission to
Mars. I thought at the time it was just an election year gimmick for a
president who lacked that “vision” thing, except to waste lives in a needless
war. Orion is little more than an update of Apollo (might as well go back to
what worked), except with a different propulsion system. The original Saturn V
rocket weighed 6.4 million pounds fully fueled, while the entire Orion craft
powered by a Delta-IV rocket weighed 1.6 million pounds. The Apollo moon rocket
was also 50 percent taller than Orion from base to the tip of the launch
aborter. NASA plans on building a “megarocket” booster, the “Space Launch
System” project, possibly appearing in test phase in 2018. Or maybe not.
I you are as old as I am, don’t
hold your breath for the next big jump, a manned flight to Mars. The program is
already six years behind schedule; in fact, the original ambitious
“Constellation” program was cancelled in 2010 due to budgetary issues, and despite
the recent successful test launch of Orion, the first manned flight is not
scheduled until 2021. As of this time, the planned lunar surface module is off
the board, even though there is an insistence that a lunar mission will
“eventually” happen. This obviously indicates a lack of the kind of commitment
of resources that the Apollo missions had, which had a far shorter gestation
period from drawing board to reality.
The first Mars mission is not
slated until 2030; that may seem far away and plenty of time to get it right,
but one still suspects that the propulsion and crew survival requirements to
achieve that goal may never be acquired in any our lifetimes—unless some
Einstein emerges with the necessary technological discovery to make it so. The
current “plan” to reach Mars is to employ a vehicle powered by a nuclear
thermal rocket, which heats a liquid substance (like Hydrogen) by way of a
nuclear reactor, and thrust is created by the expanding gas. Naturally, there
would be concerns if an “accident” occurs using this already outdated technology.
In the meantime, most of the
testing done has been in flight abort procedures, clearly an indication of the
concern for crew safety in the wake of the shuttle disasters, the lack of
funding and the need to avoid a public relations catastrophe that could end
support for the program altogether.
In the meantime, several private
enterprises have taken over where the Space Shuttle left off, but given that
the first successful unmanned launch of a stripped-down Orion cost $370
million, one suspects that the “for profit” goal of these entities is a
pipedream. One gets the impression that these projects are the fantasies of
billionaires and celebrities. There have been a few “successful” launches of
booster rockets, but nothing that achieved beyond suborbital heights. Two
recent disasters—the explosion on lift-off of an unmanned rocket built by
Orbital Sciences Corp, and the deadly crash of the Virgin Galactic prototype SpaceShipTwo—blamed on what was
called “pilot error”—demonstrates that despite all of its shortcomings today,
NASA still is the best answer to fulfilling the space travel dream.
Meanwhile, back here on Earth
going “underground” seems to have similar “challenges.” The collapse of the
Cypress Street Viaduct during California’s Bay Area Loma Prieta earthquake in
1989—in which it was initially believed that 200 people driving during rush
hour were crushed under the top level of the bridge, although the actual number
was around 20—caused some concerns elsewhere. I happened to be in San Francisco
that day for a visit, and when I returned to Sacramento a little more than an
hour later I learned that the earthquake had struck; I returned the next week
to view the destruction of rows of beachfront houses in the Marina District.
In Seattle, there were fears that
the Alaskan Way Viaduct, a similarly double-decked bridge, might collapse
during an earthquake. Since moving here in 1991, I’ve experienced two earthquakes
that were strong enough to actually notice for a second or two, but there are
always the warnings that a “big one” is on the way, someday—much like the
“someday” that Mount Rainier will blow its top, and send a tsunami of lava, mud
and water cascading in a mad rush down the valley all the way to Elliot Bay.
The second of these tremors occurred
in 2001; I remember standing in a parking lot and feeling the earth move
beneath my feet ever so slightly (I was in a rickety old apartment room for the
first—now that one kind of made me think about moving elsewhere). The Nisqually
earthquake actually was that closer-to-home wake-up call, because the viaduct
did sustain damage, and cost millions in repairs. It was subsequently espoused
by the experts that the viaduct needed to be shut down sooner rather than
later, and thus began the investigation into a way to replace it, so as not to
cause disruptions in traffic in one of the most traffic-congested cities in the
country.
It was eventually decided to
build a “hybrid” system to replace the viaduct, with both a tunnel and surface
level, although not without considerable controversy. This was warranted,
although more about its cost and who would pay for it rather than the actual
construction difficulties. There was no reference to Boston’s “Big Dig” tunnel
project, which itself was not without considerable pain before, during and
after its construction. Planning for it had begun in 1982 to untangle part of
the city’s antiquated streets alignment, but actual work did not begin until
1991. It was set to be completed by 1998, but it wasn’t officially opened for
business until the end of 2007, at double its original cost.
The Big Dig was not only plagued
with delays and cost overruns, but by taking shortcuts in its construction. The
acquisition of cheap—meaning shoddy—material, even shoddier work that led to
arrests for fraud, dangerous working conditions, hundreds of leaks, improperly
placed lighting that will cost millions more to replace, and even falling
ceilings, one of which led to a death and millions in lawsuits, added-up to one
gigantic headache.
One wonders if Seattle and the
state were paying any attention. The viaduct project hasn’t even gotten past
the “dig” phase, as the Japanese-made digging machine, nicknamed “Bertha,” sits
idle, out of commission, and who knows when it is going to be operational
again. Bertha first stalled because it
could not cut through what was thought to be a giant boulder that engineers
were surprised to encounter (subsequently it was discovered to be a steel pipe),
and now the contraption’s blades are stuck, overheated after being clogged with
the wet sand and earth; the company that built it apparently didn’t take this
possibility into consideration, especially given the difficulty in accessing
the front of Bertha in order to repair it.
Perhaps as should have been expected,
there are now reports of leaks and ground sinkage. Who knows what problems have
not been reported, and those to come. At present, the claim is that the project
will be “only” two years overdue, but that seems to be an extremely optimistic
assumption.
It is not that these tunnel
projects are not useful if done properly. Seattle’s bus tunnel was completed
without a great deal of controversy, and it kept dozens of bus routes from
clogging city streets—or keeping automobiles from clogging bus traffic. But
that tunnel was not built under or adjacent to a body of water, requiring
massive and expensive reinforcement. This is in contrast to the Channel Tunnel,
running 23 miles underneath the English Channel, connecting Britain with
France. It was dug 150 to 250 beneath the sea bed, protected by a thick layer
of ancient chalk and rock. There have been problems with the Tunnel, of course,
but mainly electrical fires and shorts that have caused occasional shutdowns.
Whether up or down, perhaps it is
not fair to question human ingenuity too harshly, but is fair to say that the
more “complicated” the technology, the less reliable it seems to be in many
cases. It doesn’t make one particularly “hopeful” that all the “smart” people
will have all the answers to fix the problems that have been wrought—let alone
fulfill someone’s space travel fantasy. The American Society of Civil Engineers
tells us that it will cost $2 trillion
to repair or replace old and decomposing infrastructure just to keep the
country afloat, and we have hardly even started on that project.
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