Last season, the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks were
second from the bottom in pass attempts, just three more than (who else) the
San Francisco 49ers. They were also 26th and 30th
respectively in passing yards gained. Although both teams were highly ranked in
rushing offense, in total they were only 17th and 24th
respectively in total offense. Both teams’ success was predicated on defense—ranked
1st and 3rd respectively, as well as among the league
leaders in forced turnovers.
That both teams managed to score points at all was indicative
of the premium placed on limiting turnovers, which explains the emphasis on the
ground game rather than passing. This also “explains” what for some is the Seahawks’
head-scratching acquisition of Oakland’s former starter, Terrelle Pryor, regardless
of what its amusing press release on the subject says. The Seahawks traded for
him in exchange for a 7th round pick, although they could have gotten
him for nothing, since sources reported that Pryor was going to be cut on
Monday anyways. Perhaps management wanted to show fans that he was “worth”
something.
Last season, Pryor was ranked 36th out of 37
quarterbacks (ahead of Geno Smith) in quarterback rating (69.1) for those who
had the requisite number of pass attempts. Outside of two games in which he had
100+ ratings (against the 27th and 29th ranked passing
defenses), Pryor had a 56.7 rating. Matt Flynn—who he “beat out” for the
Oakland starting job—with 200 pass attempts had an 85.7 passer rating (I don’t
put any stock in ESPN’s “total QBR” since unlike the traditional rating system,
it relies too much not just on quantity but on subjective measures, and thus
prone to the prejudices of the statistician).
Although Flynn was the “presumed” starter heading into
Oakland’s training camp last year—just as he was the previous year in Seattle—he
somehow lost out to a quarterback who despite his 6-6 frame had just as “weak” an
arm and even less accuracy. Pryor could, of course, run; my theory is that
until NFL defenses can effectively “solve” the question of how to game plan
against athletic quarterbacks with “happy feet,” some teams will continue to
try to compensate for the lack of a "franchise" pocket passer with one that “confuses”
defenses. But like a novice chess player whose “game” might confuse a competent
player for awhile, the latter usually figures him out soon enough.
Pryor will, of course, “compete,” but the question is with
whom. Certainly not Russell Wilson; Pete Carroll risks losing the locker room
with a move like that. No, this time it is poor Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson had
by far his best season with Seattle in 2011, but he threw even fewer passes in
2012 (none) than Flynn (nine). Last season, Jackson played well in junk time
against the worst team in the league (Jacksonville), while Flynn only arrived
back in Green Bay in time to win enough games (including a 37-36 win over
Dallas after trailing 26-3) to help the team somehow win the NFC North.
Flynn made
the smart move by re-signing with Green Bay, where he is regarded as a “hero”
for saving at least the regular season; for Jackson, it is likely back on the
road again, courtesy of a mediocre (but “athletic”) talent.
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