With Russia effectively annexing the Crimean Peninsula, one
wonders what is next. The western side of the Ukraine with its majority ethnic
Russians seems like the next card to fall, which would be a devastating blow to
the country, since it would cut off the Ukraine’s land border with the rest of
Europe, and effectively leave it isolated against the threats of Dictator
Putin.
But perhaps more intriguing is what are Russia’s intentions
concerning Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania—all states which joined the NATO
alliance. Obviously these countries are of little threat to Russia by
themselves. The problem is that these little countries control most of the
right bank of Baltic Sea coast, with Russia controlling only an isolated sliver
of land around the port of Kaliningrad.
It is clear that Russia’s principle reason for wanting
control of the Crimea is for strategic naval purposes. No doubt Putin yearns
to retake control of the Baltic coast for the same reason. The problem is that
NATO is treaty bound to come to the defense of the Baltic States in case of
attack. Is the West willing to take on the Russians militarily? Is Putin
banking on the West being too “weak” and divided to chance it? One thing that
is certain is that the West needs to strike back with sanctions hard and now before
that scenario materializes, if it doesn't wish to go to war--otherwise it will lose all credibility.
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