Of quarterbacks and controversies

“Seahawks stun Bears 23-17 in OT” exclaims the Chicago Tribune after the seriously undermanned Chicago Bears “inexplicably” lost to the Seattle Seahawks. Bears coach Lovie Smith confessed "Terrible job I did getting our football team ready. I thought we were ready to go. Some decisions I made really hurt us early on," in reference to a first half decision to  pass on a chip shot field goal, “settling” for a failed fourth down run. This has been what presumably better teams like Dallas, Green Bay, New England and now the Bears have been bemoaning after hard to digest losses. According to Brad Biggs, the loss was a sign of an “aging defense” that “couldn’t stop a rookie quarterback” with a terrible road record; Russell Wilson “did the bulk of his damage on the edges” especially with run option plays—which on many occasions Wilson ran. "When you don't contain a quarterback, you get to see exactly how fast he can be," said linebacker Lance Briggs. He concluded that defense let the team down. Players on every team that has lost to Seattle this season have bemoaned the fact that they allowed this rookie quarterback last chance opportunities to beat them after generally desultory play for the most part.

Many national commentators like ESPN’s Mike Sando have jumped on the Wilson man-crush bandwagon. What they don’t realize is that Wilson’s greatest strength will ultimately be his undoing.  I watch Wilson play and it’s a wonder defenders don't swallow him whole; but his ability to dart to and fro confounds defenders and allows him to make big plays where none should be. He rarely passes from the pocket, and when he runs to the edges no one knows what he is going to do. I keep hearing local commentators complain that the team doesn't "open-up" the playbook more to give Wilson more passing opportunities. But Wilson only takes these opportunities to run more. The most plausible result of this is that Wilson--who still continuously has trouble passing from the pocket—will be run down quicker and eventually injury prone. The question then is what will happen if he must become what he isn't because of his lack of inches--a pocket passer.


Michael Vick is a prime example of what Seattle fans might expect. Vick is only two inches taller than Wilson and also has a “cannon” arm; he also “wowed” people with his flashy play. But he was a coach-killer in Atlanta and will likely be so in Philadelphia. After his 2010 season, people were “awed” by the resurgence of a post-prison Vick and his “dual-threat” capabilities; Philadelphia then made the mistake of putting all their eggs in the Vick basket, and now the team is paying the price. When Vick was injured, he was not the same player, and even when he wasn't, the "magic" disappeared in a puff of smoke as if it was never more than a temporary illusion. This may well happen with Wilson in Seattle. When Wilson gets that inevitable hit to his throwing shoulder or knee, he won’t be the same player; you’ll either be left with a quarterback who can’t throw and entirely too predictable, or can’t run and can’t function efficiently from the pocket because of his height. 

As I’ve said before, I think the Seahawks "window of opportunity' for winning with this guy is five years at most. Enjoy it while you can, Seahawk fans.

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Quarterbacks who have been the first pick in the draft have not generally turned around the fortunes of their teams their first season. Last season, the Carolina Panthers did improve from 2 wins to 6 with Cam Newton, but have regressed this season. Sam Bradford took a team from one win to seven, with little improvement in team fortunes since. Matthew Stafford was 2-8 in an injury plagued rookie season. JaMarcus Russell was a complete bust from the beginning. Alex Smith took ten years to quarterback a team that won more games than it lost. Eli Manning was 1-6 as a starter his rookie season. Carson Palmer was 6-7. David Carr was 4-12. Michael Vick started two games. Tim Couch was 2-12. Peyton Manning was 3-13. And the list goes on. 

But this season, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts are 8-4 and should become the first team with a rookie quarterback selected first in the draft who may actually meet expectations sooner rather than later. On Sunday, Luck led an improbable comeback win over the Detroit Lions, 35-33—completing a fourth down pass for a touchdown as time expired. The Colts have become the first team in NFL history to win at least 8 games in a season with a rookie quarterback drafted number one overall. What makes this particularly remarkable is the low expectations of the team coming into the season; after all, a team that drafts number one is presumably the worst team in the league. 

The Colts’ defense is ranked in the lower half of the league, as is its running game. Far more than any other team, the Colts have put a tremendous burden on its rookie quarterback, and Luck is throwing the ball at 42 passes a clip, for nearly 300 yards per game—virtually unheard of for a rookie even in a pass-happy league. Luck has not been particularly efficient; his completion percentage is just over 55 percent and his passer rating is 76.1. But far more than Russell Wilson—who has only been expected to be “adequate” in a run-oriented offense—Luck has been expected to carry the team (or at least the offense) on his back. In this past game, the Lions looked like they were in control, and had the lead almost the entire game. But Luck persevered, and simply kept throwing the ball until something “stuck.” Either it happened or it didn’t, and fortunately for the Colts, something did happen. 

Unlike running quarterbacks like Wilson or Robert Griffin III, Luck is a prototypical pocket passer—the kind that has led teams to Super Bowls, and have won them. Why don’t running quarterbacks win Super Bowls, or even reach that far? While a running quarterback can keep a defense “on edge,” the offense is actually less efficient in the long run because there is no predictability from a coaching standpoint on what will happen on any given play. Quarterbacks who think run also don’t take reading defenses as seriously as a true pocket passer who must make quick reads out of necessity. Of course, this can be explained by many high school and college coaches preferring option-type offenses that require a quarterback who is an “athlete” and not necessarily a “pro-style” passer. Note that the Redskins offense has been specifically “shaped” around RG3’s “skill set,” and there is no doubt that the Seahawks’ “predictable” run-first offense has been a necessity, at least until Wilson could be “coached-up” enough to perform with a measure of competence against pro pass defenses. 

If history is any judge, Andrew Luck should have a longer, more productive career than either RG3 or Wilson. Hall of Fame quarterback Warren Moon, the most successful black quarterback in the NFL statistically, has been a highly partisan backer of quarterbacks like RG3, Wilson and even Tarvaris Jackson, but he should know better than he lets on about the value of a true pocket passer; he threw for nearly 50,000 yards in his NFL career, while averaging just slightly more than 8 yards a game rushing. Just as Cam Newton’s sophomore season has been a considerable disappointment, next season may tell us more about what the future holds for Luck, RG3 and Wilson; I put my money every time on the quarterbacks who can master the vertical game.