Tuesday, December 5, 2023

Who is this new president of Argentina who has Trumpists all in a joyful mood?

 

The other day I came across a YouTuber salivating over some guy I never heard of, but apparently was someone who has Trumpists all in a mania of fantasia. His name is Javier Milei, and he looks like a bloated version of Joaquin Phoenix:

 


So he resembles a celebrity, so what else has he done to inspire such adoration from the far-right? Well, it seems that he was recently voted in as the new president of Argentina. Milei was at one time the Argentinian version of Tucker Carlson, who of course thought he was the smartest person alive even though his actual understanding of the dynamics underpinning the issues of the day were no more deep than his “gut." 

Which is surprising since Milei is an economist by training; but there is little to suggest that this training has left him any more qualified to “fix” things than that Monty Python skit where architect John Cleese presents his model of a block of apartment flats as a slaughterhouse of the tenants.  Still, he is described as a political  “outsider”—you know, like Donald Trump—and of a “libertarian” bent, which is of course what people call someone who doesn’t really have a political philosophy.

Of course not having a political philosophy other than one to tear things down is apparently what many Argentinians want these days, since “something” has to be done to save the country in its current economic and financial travails. Younger voters flocked to the Milei side simply because he “promised” to do something “different”; in a Reuters story we hear this:

“Perhaps not everything Milei says I agree with or can identify with but he is our future," said Irene Sosa, a 20-year-old student celebrating outside his election bunker. "Milei represents a future for young people.”  

Maybe, but to me it sounds very much like white “Millennials” who Mother Jones notes are being sucked in by YouTube videos that are “short and memorable, with quick cuts, zippy graphics, and cool sound effects” hosted by far-right carnival barkers short on facts, loud in fear-mongering and have the same level of moral and ethical bankruptcy as does the political “philosophy” they push. 

It is incomprehensible to me how anyone cannot understand the difference between left-wing discourse which tries to influence you with the truth and exposing the hypocrisy of the right, and the empty propaganda of the right that only attempts to inspire hate and paranoia. It’s like in comedy films when someone being interrogated is being “tortured” by listening to music that drives him crazy; for the far-right fanatic, hearing the truth is what drives them “crazy.”

Still, you would think that “sensible” voters who ordinarily would be more cautious (and that would include the 44 percent who didn’t vote for Milei); but many of them voted for Milei anyways simply because although he was an “unknown” and that made him perhaps a little “scary,” what he could do couldn’t be any worse than the way things are today. Something “radical” has to be done.

Of course doing something “different” means upending the “socialist” agenda of a country that had a long history of semi-fascist rule from the Peronist faction that still has power today. Argentina’s current problems date back to the 1990s when it sought help from the IMF to help fend off international creditors. The IMF forced Argentina to peg its currency, the peso, to the U.S. dollar and institute various financial reforms. For a time the Argentinian economy showed strong improvement until the 1998 recession, when the strictures imposed by the IMF made it impossible for the Argentinian government to be “creative” in dealing with an economic downturn.

But other issues included failure to use surpluses to pay down interest debt, and the banking system making imprudent decisions that once the recession hit, and the peso depreciated, the creditors came back with vengeance as no one believed things would get “better.” As Foreign Policy recently pointed out, the “endless” economic crisis since then has “never went away.” Inflation is out of control and poverty is on the rise; and access to foreign credit is all dried up.

Ok, so what does Milei plan on doing to turn the country around? Well, at least he understands what the people who voted for him want him to tackle: "The model of decadence has come to an end, there's no going back. We have monumental problems ahead: inflation, lack of work, and poverty. The situation is critical and there is no place for tepid half-measures." That’s a start.

The rest is not exactly clear, since Milei—fearing losing voters with more radical talk—has been less upfront about it. According to the credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, “Milei has proposed fast and radical measures to address these imbalances, including dramatic cuts to federal spending, full dollarization, closure of the central bank and privatizations. Yet the dubious technical feasibility of these plans and the recent moderation in his rhetoric make it uncertain how ambitious an agenda he will pursue.”

Well, at least Trump is on his "team," and that is enough for some people viewing things from afar. The “dollarization” proposal means completely abandoning the peso and using U.S. currency instead; unfortunately, as some critics have noted, the question then is where is Milei going to find all those dollar bills, since Argentina has very little in its own reserves. Compounding that, goes on Fitch,

Milei’s emphatic victory offers him political capital to take bold action, but a lack of political muscle will be a hindrance. Libertad Avanza will have just 38 of 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and eight of 72 in the Senate, and alliances with factions of the Juntos Por El Cambio coalition will not deliver a majority. The party has no provincial governorships. A 40% poverty rate highlights a fragile social backdrop for painful adjustment, while Peronism’s enduring political machinery and sway over powerful groups such as unions could be a source of resistance.

Of course if the voters were actually confident that he had all the right answers, they would have voted in a majority of his “party” to control the legislature, but they were not in a “radical” enough mood for that. Milei presumably can find allies in the conservative parties, and while that may not be enough to pass more radical proposals, it seems likely that an electorate angry for something to change may be enough to pass some measures--the full dollarization of the economy probably not among them.

For now, the Trump-backed Milei has a grace period, helped by his “culture war” views on abortion and gun ownership. Many inside the country, however, expect that if “real change” doesn’t happen quick enough, Milei’s “honeymoon” period will be a relatively short one.

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