What did Hamas hope to “achieve” from its attack on Israel, save bring more misery on its own people? Or is the question more about what Iran wants?

 

No doubt people wonder how it is possible that such a tiny “state” like the Gaza Strip could be capable of launching the massive attack from land, air and sea against Israel, which apparently took the Israeli population and military completely by surprise. Gaza—ostensibly a part of the Palestinian Authority, but with no land connection to the West Bank—is only 141 square miles, which in comparison Rhode Island is 1,034 square miles and New York City rests on 304 square miles of land. Gaza is the third mostly densely populated political unit not a city, poverty is rampant, and although Israel does not technically “occupy” the territory, it still controls the “flow” of basic utilities (water, electricity) into the strip, and along with Egypt (which sees its regime threatened by Islamic militants), its land, sea and air traffic.

Yet the Israelis were apparently completely off their guard when Hamas militants breached the “unbreachable” wall surrounding Gaza, after using recent “protests” along the wall as a cover to conceal munitions. No, it isn’t Joe Biden’s “fault” as Republicans are stupidly claiming, but because Israeli security forces was asleep at the wheel with the belief that the people in Gaza were “cowed” into submission by Israel’s control over the spigot of their daily existence, and wouldn’t dare to engage in attacks that threatened to cut it off. 

Instead, emboldened by the "success" of its 2021 attacks that gained the notice of Iran--once sufficient stockpiles of "homemade" rockets with parts from “secret” suppliers evading the “blockade,” with Hamas militants trained in rocket-making by the Iranians—near the border, it was time to make that surprise mass attack. Observers noted the number of rockets fired, as much as several thousand in a day, indicated that Hamas was building up to this for some time.

The attacks came at the closing of a Jewish holiday rather than at the beginning of it, when it would be assumed that Israelis located near the border would be off their guard the most, since “nothing” had happened, yet. When the attacks came, nothing and no one was spared, and even children were murdered by Hamas militants who crossed into Israel. 

Some people were kidnapped, including foreign nationals; if the purpose was to use them as “bargaining chips,” it seems that the Israeli government is in no mood to “negotiate,” as Israeli retaliatory strikes begin to level Gaza, and the Israeli government appears bent on sending in the military to occupy the strip once again.

So the question is what exactly is Hamas hoping to accomplish here? Certainly not to make life "better" in Gaza. Do they hope that their "unprovoked" indiscriminate killing of Israeli civilians, including children, will bring them new “allies” to their “cause,” which to be frank the failure of which has been many decades in the making because of Palestinian intransigence and refusal to “negotiate” even when Israel was most willing to do a quid pro quo on a Palestinian state. 

Hamas did seem to at least get "moral support" from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who immediately blamed Israel for the attacks; in the case of the Saudis, it is useful to consider what they believe to be in their “interest” after resuming diplomatic relations with Iran, since they supplied most of the 9-11 hijackers, and recent FBI document releases suggested that Saudi intelligence agent Omar al-Bayoumi was the “middleman” for the Saudi government and known terrorists, and it appears that some of those he supplied support for were among the 9-11 hijackers.

Meanwhile, the Republican far-right’s friend, Vladimir Putin, took the time to blame the U.S. for the attacks by Hamas, claiming the U.S. was “monopolizing” influence in the region, when in fact Russia and probably China only want to see destabilization in the region if they can’t control it completely. Russia doesn’t need Middle East oil, so they have no other “game” to play, save to create a "distraction" from what they are doing in Ukraine.

Hamas’ attacks in 2021 only ended in the maintenance of the “status quo,” with the Hamas fighters returning to Gaza, still in power. This time, it appears that there is near unanimous support in Israel to just go in and eliminate the Hamas “government” and leadership once and for all. Outside observers maintain that Hamas will simply go underground and engage in guerilla attacks until Israel tires of trying to root them out.

Behind all of this is Iran and its various machinations in the region, which is in fact the “counterbalance” to the U.S., and even Russia and China can only choose what side they want to be on, which appears to be giving “moral support” to Iran even though the Iranians could be destabilizing influences on the Islamic populations of both countries if they wanted to be. Hamas—once thought to be no more than a “bit” player by Iran, after the 2021 uprising was now seen to be a useful proxy against Israel. Although Iran claims it had nothing to do with the latest offensive by Hamas, most observers take this with a grain of salt, as it has Iranian fingerprints all over it.

Like all paranoid regimes based on ideology and power (Republicans in this country, for example), Iran’s Islamist rulers must keep the populace focused on external “dangers”—even those it created itself—to refocus discontent to something other than the regime (the recent unrest over the killing of a woman by the “morality police” has been reduced to nothing). Thus the paranoia of the regime seems to be that it chooses conflict over peace for domestic purposes, and in supporting the activities of its various regional proxies like Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, it provides the “image” of a state under siege, since Iran is being “attacked” for these activities.

There doesn’t seem to be any way to “appease” Iran’s mullahs, as the Obama administration tried to do, which only allowed Iran to spread out its tentacles even further—or by acting tough and vacating agreements with regime, as the Trump administration did. Iran’s “moderates” had been allowed to sign the nuclear deal as long as Iran was able to spread its regional influence as another means of “protection,” but the resumption of sanctions by the Trump administration only served to discredit the “moderates” in Iran and strengthen the “hardliners.”

In the meantime, while Iran doesn’t pose a direct military regional threat to even Israel, its proxies do and that includes the Islamic State militants who caused so much havoc in Iraq. The French think tank Institut Montaigne observes that “Iran’s nuclear program is certainly a long-term strategic threat, but the actions of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard are creating mayhem now and poisoning the Middle East for decades to come.” And that includes it “secret” support of Hamas as long as they remain “useful.”