Gosh, I have to say something about what is going on in Europe these days (being a history buff), because it shouldn’t be all that surprising—partly the result of Donald Trump’s stupid foreign policy of bromancing Vladimir Putin and alienating our allies, but also of history. Take for example what is going in Germany these days; while Putin feted Angela Merkel with a bouquet of flowers, Trump merely presented her with disrespect and threats of tariffs. Merkel is gone, but her successor as chancellor, Olaf Scholz, appears to be even more “chummy” with not just Russia, but with China.
Last year’s AUKUS defense agreement clearly indicates that the U.S. does not trust its European allies (meaning the non-English-speaking ones) to help contain Chinese aggression against its democratic neighbors. Of course the UK needs to be more cooperative with the U.S. now since its foolish exit from the EU, which should have required a supermajority vote rather than the slim vote that approved it. Economists have forecast long-term consequences not just to the British economy but government funding; but hey, that is where anti-immigrant (European guest workers are so included) hate gets you.
But back to Germany. Putin says he is “tired of talking” about the Ukraine—he is going to do what he wants to do at the moment the West is most divided because he thinks the Ukraine is still part of his personal empire; he no doubt considers Eastern Europe as part of his domain as well. Germany is helping him with that aim (and there shouldn’t be any “surprise” about that, which I will get to later). Germany doesn’t really need the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and by tempting Germany with more accessible natural gas, it is a step in the wrong direction against EU energy policy, since natural gas is not “carbon neutral” and will contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Other EU countries would likely become less committed to clean and renewable energy policies—which would also have the effect of increasing dependency on Russia for energy, which in turn helps prop-up Putin’s authoritarian regime and gives him no incentive to change.
The Nord 2 pipeline runs from Russia to Germany directly (connected by the Baltic Sea) and Germany doesn’t seem to care that this pipeline adversely effects the security of the Ukraine and Poland, since the Russians would no longer have to transport product to Europe through those countries—and with Russia not having a reason to “play nice,” can threaten those countries’ economies and blackmail their governments, and invade if the proper “rationalizations” are found under a rock. What would Germany do, since it borders Poland? Nothing? Beg for mercy, or point out that they have been “friends” with Russia in the past, despite a few “misunderstandings”? After all, if Putin is willing to forgive and forget, Germany is willing to wax nostalgic about the good times the two countries have had, especially when they could agree on something, like threatening Poland's sovereignty (wittingly on Germany's part or not).
Today, Germans, or at least those in former West Germany, have become complacent after 75 years of democracy, either out of arrogance (you know, the “master race” stuff) or a memory lapse. Apparently Germans are willing to overlook the fact that Russia is not a “democracy,” but an authoritarian regime where opposition is suppressed, jailed or murdered, whether politicians, journalists or exiles. Putin rules Russia like a Mafia Godfather, a crime boss who has his "capos" take care of his various dirty business so he isn't directly implicated. Germany does not even have appeared to use the Nord 2 pipeline as leverage to prevent Russia from continuing to menace the Ukraine—only foolishly opening itself up to economic blackmail.
Now to history: Germany fought Russia in two world wars, the second which left Germany in a state of chaos and destruction. Of course the Western allies did their part in all of that, but instead of creating a government in the east that was just another version of oppressive dictatorship with a Gestapo under a different name, the West (or at least the U.S.) spent a lot of money creating a country (West Germany) with a stable foundation for democracy and a successful economy. East Germany, on the other hand, became the Soviet Union’s most reliable European stooge, and the fact that Russian is the second most popular foreign language in Germany today suggests that many Germans in the east still haven’t gotten used to the idea of democracy and who is responsible for it. Last July a Foreign Policy article noted that far-right extremist parties are shockingly popular in that part of the country—so much so that it affects national politics as a whole. There seems little doubt that eastern Germans are having their “say” in the current “romancing” of Putin by German leaders, who are doing this perhaps for the most cynical of reasons: getting elected.
Now let’s look a little further back for something that might “explain” some of this. The German-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact was signed before Hitler invaded Poland in 1939. There was a “secret” codicil in which in return for looking the other way when Hitler invaded Poland, the Russians would be allowed to have their own little “slice” of Poland—just as Prussia and Russia (funny how those names sound alike) carved-up Poland between themselves in the late 18th century. The pact was of course cynical in nature; both Hitler and Stalin had “plans,” but the Germans just got the “jump” on the Russians—although in the end it all turned out to be in the Russians’ favor (of course with the unacknowledged assistance of the U.S. and Britain) more than they could have hoped.
The effect of the non-aggression pact was devastating for the West; for the nearly two years that the pact was in effect before the German invasion, the Soviet Union supplied Germany with raw materials and oil, and this was “good” for both countries, since Hitler was helping out his “buddy” Stalin in their shared goal of crushing independent democracy in Europe. One may wonder why Britain and France did not also declare war on the Soviet Union as well as Germany, but no doubt it was one problem at a time, and Germany was the “easier” of the two to deal with.
So at least in the eastern part of Germany, there still today is the majority of the population (and perhaps with the elders passing it on to the next generation) who have not come to grips with making their own decisions—and like Russians, prefer someone else to do it for them. Especially politicians who feed on people’s darkest fears, and we know all about that in this country. In Germany today, a wink is as good as a nod to blind policy.
For the present, if Germany is keen to kowtow to Russia, it would seem to make sense to cultivate relations with France, which is in competition with Germany for all-star status on the continent. France is not a member of NATO, but one suspects that proffering a goody-bag might be persuasive even after the submarine sales “debacle,” even though it was done with sound strategic sense.
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