The latest trade figures with China, after an April anomaly, is back to normal, with the U.S. importing four times what it exports to that country. Donald Trump’s so-called “phase one” trade deal and tariffs have had no effect on the U.S.’ massive trade deficit with China; remember that Trump had stupidly revoked the trans-Pacific trade deal meant to serve as a buffer against unfair Chinese trade activity for no other reason that it was an “Obama” deal. Two photo ops with North Korea’s dictator and calling him a “friend,” failed to bring any movement on denuclearization. Trump’s bullying tactics against Iran have failed to bring it back to the “negotiating table” on Trump’s terms, although what those terms are were never quite clear to begin with. The so-called “peace” negotiations with the Taliban only threatens to make Afghanistan a Iranian client state. Despite the evidence provided by U.S. intelligence about continuing Russian interference in our elections, Trump continues to choose to believe his friend, Vladimir Putin, who knows that Trump believes every lie told to him as long as long as there is something in it for him, and the country be damned.
And then of course there was Jared Kushner’s Middle East “peace” project that after more than three years threatened to produce absolutely nothing. Now, just a few months before the presidential election, with Trump facing defeat and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hanging on to power by a thread, the United Arab Emirates throws both a thread of a lifeline with a something less than “historic” peace agreement. It is basically an “agreement” to start officially talking to each other, in preparation for signing a deal in three weeks or so to establish diplomatic relations—thus it isn’t quite a “done deal” just yet.
When Egypt under Anwar Sadat became the first Middle Eastern country to recognize and establish diplomatic relations with Israel, that was “historic,” because no other Muslim country in the region had taken that step after several decades of warfare in which Egypt, Jordan and Syria allied in efforts to drive Israel into the sea, all of those efforts abject failures that only made things worse for the Palestinians. All Arab countries, to one degree or another, had been calling for the destruction of Israel, and Egypt’s move was thus indeed a “historic” step. Of course there was something in it for Egypt—the reacquisition of the Sinai Peninsula, which they were unlikely ever to regain under anything else but a peace deal; had no such deal been made, it is easy to see Israel retaining it and even annexing it for its own settlement purposes.
In 1994, Jordan established diplomatic relations with Israel, but there was no media hoopla over this; Jordan’s King Hussein was regarded as a moderate among Middle Eastern rulers, and his wife was an American, whose parents were also native-born Americans. Her father’s heritage was Lebanese-Syrian Christian, and he was a successful businessman and served in various government positions. The media did not treat it as “historic” because it was clear that the king, preferring the Western way of life, simply grew tired of playing the game and saw Israel more useful as a friend than as an enemy; thus diplomatic relations was just a matter of when, not if.
Israel, of course, will take “peace” wherever it can find it, and it found it rather cheaply in its newest “acquisition.” First off, the UAE agreed to establish “official” relations not because they want to be “friends,” but because Israel has offered them the use of their security and intelligence services, particularly useful against their mutual enemy, Shiite Iran. Only lip service was given to the Palestinians, since this is increasingly becoming a tiresome issue for Sunni Gulf states, and they are of no use as partners against Iran, and Israel is. Pakistan may give lip service to the “cause,” but they can afford to because they are far, far away from the action. What can they do to help the Palestinians? Nothing. Saudi Arabia has made no comment on the Israel/UAE deal, but since the Saudis and the UAE are involved in the confusing Yemen civil war—where the UAE is backing a separatist government, while the Saudis have been supplying arms to Al-Qaeda and ISIS insurgents against the Houthis—the Trump administration has behaved very conveniently for both of them, expressing no “concern” about what is going on there.
The UAE, despite its small size, does have an overlarge footprint in the region (much as Israel does), and having been the principle buyer of the now defunct Airbus A380, it certainly has its visons of grandeur on the world stage, even sponsoring a golf tournament on the European tour. Its ruler has a lot to protect, and the Trump administration has been very helpful in that regard in pushing the parties together for the mutual “benefit.” For example, in exchange for what Netanyahu is now claiming is just a “temporary” hold on Israel annexing the West Bank, the UAE hopes to receive Israeli military “assistance” on “stabilizing” the Yemen crisis—and preventing it from spilling over into their own territory. Oman, which shares a border with Yemen, also supported the deal for obviously reasons.
The reality is that this was not a “peace” deal for the sake of “peace,” because this deal is not about “peace,” but to maintain a regional conflict that ends in the maintenance of the power status quo, and hopes to weaken Iranian influence in the region. While we can muse about the strategic interests of those involved, no one should be making claims of an agreement of “historic” proportions. On Friday Kushner kept avoiding questions on other issues with news anchors, insisting that we all should be “celebrating” this “historic” event. No one should be fooled; this barely moves the needle from what was “promised” by the Trump administration almost four years ago. A true peace agreement must involve the Palestinian issue, and that clearly is rapidly being shoved off the table not just by the Trump administration and Israel, but apparently by other regional players as well.
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