How about this oddball idea: The Packers beat the Cowboys because they are the better team

The Monday morning quarterbacking was in full swing after the Dallas Cowboys’ “epic” collapse this past Sunday. I can’t say it was any more “epic” than Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos blowing a 24-0 halftime lead a few weeks ago, but given all the attention that the so-called “America’s Team” receives, everything about them seems magnified to hilt, and naturally the quarterback receives most of the adverse attention. My main issue with the sports media’s take on the game is the absolute silence concerning the Green Bay Packers’ hand in all of this, as if the team is just Aaron Rodgers and no one else; frankly, if Matt Flynn had not gone on his little misadventure and remained with the team, the Packer ship would have held a steady course from the start.

But all these commentators could talk about was dumping on Tony Romo; they seem to forget that the Cowboys have won only one playoff game since 1996, and that was in 2009 when the Cowboys actually had a semblance of a defense. Here are some fun facts to consider in regard to the Cowboys:

Average points scored per game (pre-Romo) 2000-2005: 17.3

Average points scored per game 2006-present: 24.7

Average points allowed per game 2006-present: 22.7

Hmm. First of all, it would appear that in the six years before Romo became the starter, the Cowboys had an anemic offense. Since Romo became quarterback of the Cowboys, offensive scoring went up more than 40 percent. The problem is that when the defense allows almost as many points as the offense scores, there is very little room for error. The Cowboys are simply a perpetual 9-7 team that people have unrealistic expectations of, given the limitations of their defense. This season it is 32nd in total yards allowed, and 26th in points allowed. The unrealistic expectations derive from the fact that the Cowboys are 4th in points scored, meaning that the offense has had to work overtime to make up for the defense’s lapses. This season, the Cowboys have lost games in which they have scored 48, 30, 28 and now 36 points. Against the Lions, the Cowboys scored 17 points in the fourth quarter; the problem was that the defense allowed 24 points in the same quarter, leading to a one-point loss. Chicago scored on every possession last week, except on the final kneel down.

And people have demanded “perfection” from Romo, when the defense has shown precious little of even being “adequate.” If the Cowboys’ defense was better, there would be fewer “opportunities” to provide excuses for critics to deride one of the few bright spots on the team. Romo has 29 touchdown passes and only 9 interceptions this season through 14 games. He has a 95.8 career passer rating. According to Pro Football Reference, he has 18 fourth quarter comebacks and 19 game winning drives. Yet what is it that people choose to remember? It is also useful to point out that not every team makes it to the Super Bowl; since 2005, 22 teams have failed to make it that far. Maybe some of the blame belongs on the shoulders of owner/president/GM Jerry Jones, who is probably infatuated with offensive players at the expense of the defense. 

And then there is all this handwringing about whether the Cowboys should have run the ball more. The fact is that in this league, the running game is one of the least predictable aspects. Back in the day, Barry Sanders rushed for a lot of yards, and had a career average of 5.0 yards per carry. But his numbers were skewed by a few long runs; in 1997 he rushed for 2053 yards, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. But if you subtract just his one longest run from each game, his average drops dramatically to 4.5 yards per carry. In fact, the only statistical difference between a 5 YPC runner and a 3 YPC runner is that the former once in a while breaks off a big run. 

Against the Packers, DeMarco Murray gained 83 of his yards on just four carries. Romo threw for 358 yards, which obviously allowed these opportunities. But when the Packers scored to make it 36-31, there was still 4:17 left on the clock and the Packers still had their three timeouts. Prior to Romo’s first interception, it was second and six. The Packers had used their second timeout. They boxed the line expecting a run to use up clock. The way the Packers were moving the ball, burning a few seconds off the clock was to no purpose unless the Cowboys achieved a first down, and you can never assume you will get the required yardage by rushing the ball. If Murray was stopped at the line it would have been third and long. At that point the Packers would likely have used their third timeout, and hoped for a third down stop before the two-minute warning. 

It is all speculation of course; but once the Packers did resume possession they went no-huddle/shotgun and covered 50 yards for the go-ahead touchdown in just 1:15.  The Dallas defense could no more stop Flynn and Eddie Lacy any more than they could Josh McCown and Matt Forte last week; it just took the Packers a little longer to get rolling.  As happened all too often this year, once an opponent got on a roll against the Cowboys’ defense, nothing could stop them. 36 points should have been more than enough against a supposedly “down” team, but as usual observers underestimated Flynn and his comfort level with this Packer team. Flynn also accomplished something that neither Brett Favre or Rodgers have done: Beat the Cowboys in Dallas.

I’m not here to defend Romo; the team I used to hate the most has become something of a media-driven oddity rather than a media-driven commodity. Fans in states without professional teams jumped on the Cowboys “bandwagon” in the Seventies; maybe it was those cheerleaders in those titillatingly skimpy (for the time) outfits that attracted some of those people. But today the Cowboys are more “fantasy” than reality. The most recent polling claims that the Cowboys are still the most “popular” NFL team, but the fact that the team has done little to warrant that affection since 1996 only confirms the suspicion that many of these people are non-football fans who just vote for the team they’ve heard spoken of most often. 

The thing about all of this that does attract my ire most is the fact that no one seems to believe that the Packers had anything to do with the comeback win. They had three 80-yard touchdown drives in the second half; as horrible as the Cowboys’ defense was, you still have to—using that overused phrase—“make plays.”  Rodgers is not the whole team, and he’s had less than stellar games himself. Flynn’s numbers in the eight games in which he either started or played at least two quarters have provided enough evidence to suggest he is more than adequate in the backup role: 172 of 266, 2049 yards, 16 TD passes and 7 interceptions for a 97.1 passer rating. He is 3-2 as a starter for the Packers, and the team is an extra point away from being 3-1 with Flynn in relief since Rodgers’ injury. This is what is being lost in all this Cowboys’ “choke” propaganda; the Cowboys just are not a very good team—and the Packers are.

Meanwhile, with Detroit losing to Baltimore om Monday night, the Packers suddenly find themselves in a position seemingly unimaginable six weeks ago: If they win at home against Pittsburgh and on the road against Chicago, they will be sole representative from the NFC North in the playoffs.