How much luck can one team stand?

The Seattle Seahawks managed a shameful 14-9 win over the 11+  point underdog St. Louis Rams on Monday night, despite being thoroughly out-played and out-gained 339 to 135. Take away an 80-yard touchdown pass and the Seahawks could muster only 55 yards of total offense. The Rams had 23 first downs to only 7 for Seahawks, who had 6 three-and-outs and no other drives longer than 26 yards—mainly because on that particular drive they only had that far to go to score. On the final drive of the game, the Rams marched all the way from their own 3-yard line to the Seattle 1, but failed to punch it in.  

Local sports commentators are saying that “great” teams win these kinds of games against back-up quarterbacks; to me, wins like this are more like a boxer who after losing the first 11 rounds wins on a lucky punch in the 12th. I’m not sure that the Seahawks have improved over last season offensively, and they may well have regressed; they’ve managed to win with defense and a few (very) fortunate big plays on offense. Wins against Carolina, Houston and Tennessee--teams they supposedly outmatched--should have had different outcomes if the fates had not intervened on the Seahawks' behalf. They may well be exposed in the playoffs, particularly if they have to play a road game; “luck” doesn’t always smile on a team that doesn’t deserve that many breaks. 

Here are some other recent examples, more egregious perhaps, of games that have should have gone another way. On November 1, 2009, the Miami Dolphins defeated the New York Jets 30-25 despite being out-gained 378 to 104. They managed this by scoring on kickoff returns of 100 and 101 yards by Ted Ginn, Jr. and a 48-yard fumble return by Jason Taylor. A week earlier, the Buffalo Bills defeated the Carolina Panthers 20-9 despite being out-gained 425 to 167; four Panther turnovers and two Bills touchdown drives totaling 34 yards helped account for this. Even more lopsidedly, on September 26, 2010 the Tennessee Titans defeated the New York Giants 29-10 despite the Giants out-gaining the Titans 471-271. In that game, the Giants failed to score on drives of 81, 84 and 77 yards.