Monday, November 28, 2011

Packers remain unbeaten, but doubts linger

This past Thanksgiving Day match-up between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions started out less the 1962 Lions blow-out than last season’s December game, when the Lions beat the Packers 7-3 after knocking out a listless Aaron Rodgers leading an equally listless Packers offense before being knocked-out with a concussion. Although though the Packers led 7-0 at halftime this time, they managed less than 100 yards by halftime, less than half what the Mathew Stafford-led Lions gained. The question entering the second half was whether the Packers would show some life, or the Lions would get around to taking as much advantage of the Packers defense on the scoreboard as they did moving the ball up and down the field. There seemed as much chance for the latter scenario as the former; one thing that has always irritated me about Rodgers—but seems to go unnoticed by the pundits—is that when he is under pressure to lead the team to a score, he seems to flounder more often than not, which went far to explain why after a 13-3 season under Brett Favre, the same team went 6-10, losing seven games by a touchdown or less. With 1:02 left in the first half at their own 37 yard line, the Packers did the following:

1st and 10 at GB 37 Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to Finley.

2nd and 10 at GB 37 Rodgers pass short right to Jennings pushed ob at DET 46 for 17 yards. Penalty on GB-Jennings, Offensive Pass Interference, offsetting, enforced at GB 37 - No Play Penalty on DET-Vanden Bosch, Roughing the Passer, offsetting.

Rodgers pass incomplete short left to Starks.

3rd and 10 at GB 37 Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to Nelson. PENALTY on GB-Bulaga, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 37 - No Play.

Punt

Now, I admit to being one of Brett Favre’s “supporters.” On his website, Favre thanks his “supporters” rather than his “fans,” suggesting that for him, its personal. I want to like Rodgers, being a long-time Packer through thick and very thin. But this Quarterback God stuff has too much anti-Favre stincture. My attitude is, alright, if Rodgers can do no wrong, than that is what I expect to see; if I don’t see it, than I want an explanation for why pundits are lying to me. Pro-Football Reference purports to keep a tally on the number of “game-winning drives” for each quarterback. Some of these are more legitimate than others; throwing out the doubtful ones, quarterbacks that have received a certain amount of malignment for their quarterbacking abilities, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow, have seven and four legitimate last minute and OT game-winning drives respectively to their credit. What about Rodgers? Supposedly he has five, but I would regard only one as legitimate.

Take for instance a 2008 game against the winless Detroit Lions; on the surface, the Packers handed them a 48-25 whipping. But according to the criteria used, and despite the fact the Packers led 24-9 after the third quarter, the Lions actually came back to take a 25-24 lead before the Packers—helped by two interception returns for touchdowns—to the apparently easy win. Another two “game-winning drives” occurred after the game was tied entering the fourth quarter. A fourth “game winning drive” was one of 11 yards following an interception early in the fourth quarter against the Bears in 2009. The only “legit” game-winning drive that Rodgers has led was on opening day 2009 against the Bears, when down 15-13, Rodgers threw a 50-yard TD pass with 1:11 left in the game to take a 21-15 lead. The Bears subsequently had the ball first down on their own 38 yard line with 1:06 still left in the game, but Jay Cutler threw an interception on the next play. That leaves us with the question if what can we expect from Rodgers when the game is on the line? That is a question that remains to be answered.

Meanwhile, the Packers have hardly dominated their opponents, winning by 12 points or less in eight of their eleven victories, meaning there hasn’t been much “garbage” time for back-ups to get in the games. There has been talk by “the experts” that if the Packers lose a game but otherwise clinch home field for the playoffs before the season finale against the Lions, McCarthy will rest the starters and the team will likely loss by default. But I wouldn’t write-off this game so fast. This will be back-up quarterback and soon-to-be-free agent Matt Flynn’s best opportunity to show case himself, and given that he is considered by many as one of the top, if not the top, free agent quarterbacks available next year, many a GM will no doubt have great interest in this match-up’s game film. Flynn has shown enough to be regarded as a top-five fantasy pick in the event that Rodgers goes down with an injury; it would be foolish for a quarterback-starved team (like the Seattle Seahawks) to ignore him just because of what John Clayton thinks and the local pundits relishing the idea of continuing the team’s historically bad record of drafting quarterbacks.

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