Packers win as ground game keeps Willis out of trouble, and Richardson's "big play" throws land in the hands of Packer defenders

 

I’ll keep this short and “sweet.” What did I tell you last week? The Packers had a chance to beat the Colts based on two variables: that the Packers have an offensive scheme that prevents Malik Willis from having to use his arm as much as possible. This was accomplished with Willis throwing just 14 passes as the team piled-up 261 yards on the ground. It was only in the fourth quarter with the Packers with a 10-point lead that Matt LaFleur allowed Willis to throw the ball downfield, which by good fortune was a 39-yard completion to Romeo Dobbs, which constituted a third of Willis’ total passing yardage. While Josh Jacobs gained 151 yards (but lost a fumble in the end zone), Jayden Reed caught just 2 passes on 2 targets for 9 yards after his huge game last week, while Christian Watson was not targeted even once.

The second variable the Packers needed to accomplish was for the defense to prevent the random big play by Anthony Richardson, because doing so would take advantage of Richardson’s habit of inconsistency; we saw that the Packers managed this by the secondary playing deep to defend against the balls thrown downfield—and three of Richardson’s throws downfield were intercepted, and overall he completed just 50 percent of his passes. This is what the Packers hoped would happen: take the lead early and make the opponent’s inexperienced quarterback be the one who is forced to stand in the pocket and throw the ball.

There were problems of course. Willis was not sacked or hit a single time in the game; when he didn’t immediately find a receiver, he ran. It is a question whether this is a winning strategy against better defenses or the team is in a deep hole. After all, the Packers scored only 16 points in this game, although they did leave points on the field, including another makeable field goal. But just one “big play” by Richardson would have left a different result than the 16-10 final score in the Packers favor.

Still the final result was certainly a relief for fans in any case, and if the Packers can continue to control the game on the ground, their schedule will not be particularly difficult, at least not until they face the Texans and C.J. Stroud in Week 7; before then there is the Rams, who were blown-out by the Cardinals, and although the Vikings beat the 49ers, well they were not supposed to be that good this year.

The Packers play the Titans next and are underdogs despite the Titans being 0-2. The Titans blew a 17-0 lead against the Bears, and then lost to a Jets team with Aaron Rodgers at least ambulatory. The game is on the road, and frankly that is the only advantage the Titans have, unless one considers the fact that second-year quarterback Will Levis has slightly more experience than Willis, but not the kind that can overcome a lack of big-time playmakers that one can surmise the Packers’ offense possesses, if Willis is able to take advantage of the weapons he has in the receiver corps.