India likely to account for the largest chunk of "excess" Covid deaths in upcoming WHO report, which it is already disputing

 

Anyone who examines the numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths worldwide—and I typically check Worldometer’s numbers, since they are about as “accurate” as anybody’s and are continually updated—they can’t help but be doubtful about the “official” numbers reported by certain countries. Western countries we assume are the more accurate, since their health care systems are “superior” and the media is more skeptical of government attempts to falsify the numbers; however, it does appears that some states in the U.S. (like Florida) no longer feel they need to continue reporting updates on cases and deaths.

But it is clear that some other countries—particularly in Africa, where testing for the virus has been sporadic at best and non-existent at worst, and in Asian nations, where cases and deaths are a matter of “definition.” China and India in particular have stood out among all nations in regard to questionable figures. We have been led to believe that China’s severe lockdown measures have been rather surprisingly effective, although few outside of China actually believe it. It is interesting to note, however, that China’s case numbers—though still absurdly low—has in the last month been among the fastest growing in the world as most other nations have seen decreasing numbers. China’s near doubling of its numbers from just a month ago seems difficult to explain, although we probably should expect that international athletes from the recent Olympics will be blamed.

Or perhaps China is belatedly “revising” its numbers given that the World Health Organization is preparing a new report providing its best estimate of the true toll of the virus, taking into consideration various mechanisms including “excess deaths.” Of all countries, India seems to be the most concerned about what the WHO will report; even the Indian media accuses the Modi government of deliberately seeking to keep the numbers down by various means, such as the lack of testing and falsifying cause of death findings. The bodies of deceased persons suspected of dying from Covid-19 are often—or usually—either burned or tossed into rivers at such high numbers without being tested that they simply can’t be explained any other way. It is believed that the true virus death toll in India could be 8 times the “official” number of slightly over 500,000.

This is likely what the WHO report is set to do, and the Indian government is doing everything it can to “stall” the release of the report, according to the New York Times, in the hope that it can be “revised.” Indian officials claim that it is “unfair” for India to be lumped in with “Tier 2” countries—meaning “developing countries”—instead of Tier 1 countries. The WHO concludes that since Tier 1 countries have superior medical capabilities and more accurate reporting, their virus numbers are not likely to increase significantly in the report. But Indian officials claim that they should not be evaluated differently from Tier 1 countries, which they hope would offer a considerably different number, presumably much lower.

India, of course, has much to fear from the WHO numbers, since unlike even China, it has one of the worst per-capita medical care systems in the world. The Times of India even admitted in 2018 that the country ranked 145^th in the world in quality and accessibility of health care. Indian health ministry officials apparently do not believe that this fact, or the fact that India has the largest population living in poverty in packed slums, where there is little access to clean water, where clothes are usually washed in river water contaminated by human feces, doesn’t mean greater “access” to disease.

In response to the New York Times story, officials put out a press report claiming that "The model gives two highly different sets of excess mortality estimates of when using the data from Tier I countries and when using unverified data from 18 Indian states. Such a wide variation in estimates raises concerns about validity and accuracy of such a modeling exercise." Huh? What is being claimed here is that not everyone in India lives in slums, and some actually have access to good medical care. But India is also, according to The World Inequality Report, one of the most unequal, a charge that Indian officials also claimed to be “flawed.” In any case there is no doubt that the Covid-19 case and death rate in India is vastly underreported; it is just a matter of by how many times more seems “reasonable” to researchers, not to the Indian government.

Of course, India is only the worst case of under-reporting, and while “official” deaths stand at around 6.5 million worldwide, the New York Times is reporting that the WHO report will likely put the true total at around 15 million—with India accounting for a huge chunk of the excess. Even the WHO numbers may be too conservative, so as not to “embarrass” certain countries which have fed their citizens falsified numbers for propaganda purposes, such as China which is also disputing the WHO’s “methodology.”