Wednesday, June 3, 2020

What happens when a country does not institute lockdown measures? Ask Sweden


Today, according to Worldometers, the country with the fastest growing rate of increase in COVID-19 cases in the “western” world is Sweden. Outside of the U.S. and Russia, today’s increase in new cases of 2,214 is the highest in hard numbers; although well behind the U.S., in terms of per population this is more than three times the U.S. rate of increase. After a slow start in being counted, its death rate is catching up to that of Spain, Italy and the UK, and will likely surpass them as a percentage of the population. Unlike other countries that took the pandemic seriously, Sweden’s virus problem is far from “topping off.” 

While other countries, such as in Latin America, have had difficulty in implementing lockdown orders because its social safety net programs are practically non-existent—due to the large number of people who work in the “informal” economy, such as day labor and selling produce in markets to survive—and some populace countries, such as India and Bangladesh, have massive urban slums that make it almost impossible to practice social distancing, Sweden does not have such rationalizations for what it has done. Unlike its neighbors Norway, Denmark and Finland, which have managed to stave-off significant impacts, it has proceeded as if it was “business as usual,” with not closing its borders, or requiring  social distancing, or the closure of businesses or schools—and it is now paying the price for it, and its older population in particular. The belief that the elderly would be “protected” being isolated in care homes would prove a false assumption; instead they have turned into houses of death. Care givers would give the excuse for not wearing protective masks or limiting visitation by claiming that they had not received the written “guidance” to so.

What happened? A Swedish epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, was apparently tasked by the government to provide it cover for keeping the Swedish economy “open.” Tegnell would claim that Sweden would eventually develop a “herd immunity,” meaning a large percentage of the population would catch the virus, and although a few more vulnerable people would die, it would be “worth” the risk because the population would more quickly develop a “self” immunity. The problem is that this hasn’t happened. Tegnell’s claim in early May that herd immunity would soon reach 40 percent in Sweden turned out to be overly optimistic; recent reporting indicates that testing in Stockholm revealed that only 7 percent had evidence of antibodies against the COVID-19. 

Today, many in Sweden are outraged that their aged parents and grandparents were allowed to be killed-off by the virus because of the government’s lax policies—and some of them may be next. But there are those who charge that the Swedish population’s preference to do their “own thing” without government interference is also at fault; the Swedish people expected to go about their daily lives, and conned themselves into believing they were acting with  “common sense”—or at least that was the belief behind the “advisories” from the Public Health Agency. Yet there are still those, like health minister Lena Hallengren, who are trying to pass the buck for their own inaction, blaming it all on a “society-wide” failure, and employers who did not provide workers with “proper guidance.” 

But the reality is that when government officials do not take health crises like the COVID-19 seriously, how is the public expected to do so to, especially when it is not in its “nature” to do so? Even the “unofficial” reason to avoid lockdown rules in Sweden, to keep the economy running, has turned out to be a chimera, with the country’s economy expected to contract at a faster rate than it neighbors, which did enact lockdown policies.

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