Sunday, December 16, 2018

The Packers on the brink of the unthinkable: a full year with Rodgers and a worse record than with Hundley


The Packers in the past have dominated the Chicago Bears in their own home park, but this season has been so different in so many different ways. Unlike last week against the Falcons, Aaron Rodgers and company once more came out flat, trailing 14-3 at halftime. As so often has happened this season, the Packers revived enough in the third quarter to put themselves back in the game, only to be followed again offensive inconsistency. After tying the game at 14, the Packers next two series were 6 plays, -7 yards advanced. Unlike last week, the Packers allowed the Bears to survive their miscues—a fumble at the Packer 23, and a badly bungled direct snap in punt formation that allowed the Packers to score their only touchdown on a short field, while Packers failed to “finish” promising drives. Rodgers’ tried to force a ball into  Jimmy Graham in the end zone in the fourth quarter; but Graham’s hands are not made of glue after all, and Rodgers’ record interception-less streak ended at 402 pass attempts,  still 44 passes beyond Tom Brady’s previous record. On the Packers final drive, on second-and goal Rodgers took an 18-yard sack, settled for a field goal, and for the second time in the last two tries a Packer was off-sides on an on-side kick attempt (adding to their special teams woes), as the Packers clinched a losing record in the 24-17 loss.

Mike McCarthy is gone, but Joe Philbin was the offensive coordinator all those years too.  Rodgers continues to avoid the center of the field like the plague. It has been noted that this season Rodgers has taken far fewer chances in the middle of the field, in fact leading the league in passes thrown outside the numbers—which of course means more passes thrown out of bounds rather than caught. Randall Cobb and Graham were supposed to control the middle, and yet against the Bears Rodgers only threw 11 of his 42 pass attempts in the middle of field. Last month in a piece for CBS Sports, Sean Wagner-McGough broke down the Packers “failure by design” system which hasn’t seemed to change since McCarthy’s firing. He noted that the Packers rely on  “isolation” routes that require receivers to get open on their own, and Rodgers has either not been able to, or too afraid to, throw receivers open where they have an opportunity to make catches, often preferring to throw balls away, of which he is among the league leaders in doing. Throwing the ball away hasn’t helped Rodgers’ near league bottom completion percentage, either.

But Wagner-McGough also noted Rodgers much more often than in past is just making poor decisions and poor passes. He may not trust his rookie receivers, but outside of Davante Adams, Rodgers has shown insecurity in throwing the ball even to Cobb, who in the past was one of his clutch “go-to” receivers.  On the other hand, McCarthy’s “antiquated” offensive scheme doesn’t “scare” anyone anymore, and one could sympathize with Rodgers looking for a coach who has “new” ideas, and perhaps with a year under their belts Marques Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown might blossom into the stars they were in college if Rodgers is comfortable enough to gives them the chance. 

But that will have to wait until next year. This year, the unthinkable is on the brink of occurring: a full year with Rodgers, and the Packers could have a worse record than last season with Brett Hundley playing the majority of the season.

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