The Seattle Seahawks’ “surprise” win over the Baltimore Ravens sure has people around here scratching their heads wondering what’s next. A team which just as easily could be 1-8 is suddenly giving the impression that they are capable of the damndest things on any given Sunday. Coming into this season, people were rightly confused about why the team didn’t sign Matt Hasselbeck for at least another year or two until they found their next “guy,” and instead jumped on Tarvaris Jackson, who nobody else in the league regarded as anything more than as a movie extra. But Jackson has played well enough to surpass a great many fans wildest expectations, and the Seahawks’ 3-6 record qualifies as a “success” story. Not that Jackson has been more than a bit player in this success; all of a sudden the Seahawks’ defense seems modestly competent, their offensive line is actually starting to block, and Marshawn Lynch—after being little more than a point on a graph since he was picked-up from the Buffalo Bills last year—has rushed for back-to-back 100+ yard games. The question is how much “improvement” can Seahawk fans—and the team itself—tolerate? Or better yet, how much more “good” T-Jack can they stand?
Despite what coach Pete Carroll thinks, most fans find it hard to wrap their minds around Jackson as the “answer” at quarterback, because as he showed in Minnesota with the same offensive coordinator and an elite running back, you never know what you are going to get from one week to the next. And people may not be aware of this, but he did nothing with Sydney Rice for two years before Brett Favre made Rice look like a Pro Bowl receiver, which Rice has no chance of being again as long as Jackson is the quarterback (no matter how often Jackson laser focuses on him while other receivers are wide open). But Jackson may play just well enough to play Seattle right out of that draft pick they (or fans) so crave for one of the “franchise” quarterbacks in next year’s draft. Obviously the coach and players want to win ball games, so it is a fair question to ask if Seattle’s management even has Andrew Luck, Landry Jones or Matt Barkley in its draft plans. The Seahawks have a terrible record drafting quarterbacks anyways; every quarterback they have drafted since 1977 has not had a productive career either with the team or elsewhere. It might surprise some people, but neither Jim Zorn (whose stats are not all that impressive either) and Dave Krieg were undrafted free agents, and of course Matt Hasselbeck came in a trade with Green Bay, a well they might try again to draw from. Obviously Charlie Whitehurst will be gone next year; they might draft one of the second tier quarterbacks to compete for second or third on the depth chart, and they might look for one of the free agents on the market, like, say, Matt Flynn.
Carroll does have a theory to take the team to the Super Bowl that might include Jackson as the starter, although it seems as if he has forgotten that his USC teams had quarterbacks who actually looked the part, at least on the college level. I suppose it is possible for third-tier quarterbacks to play well enough to win a Super Bowl, and perhaps “shock” the pundits by putting in an unexpectedly stellar performance on football’s biggest stage. Take for example Doug Williams in the 1987 strike season Super Bowl versus John Elway and the Denver Broncos. Williams—who completed less than fifty percent of his passes during his career—only played in five games that year, two as a starter in which he was 0-2. Jay Schroeder was the designated starter for the Washington Redskins, and went 8-2 before going down with a shoulder injury. Few pundits gave the Redskins much of a chance with Williams as quarterback in the playoffs. Against Chicago and Minnesota, he was an unimpressive 23-55 for 326 yards, but the Redskins’ defense was stout enough to snatch two victories from the jaws of defeat. Against the Broncos in the Super Bowl, the Redskins quickly fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter. But in the second quarter, the Redskins put together what is probably the most-mind blowing offensive explosion in one quarter in NFL history, scoring 35 points and laying waste to many a betting line. Williams threw for nearly as many yards in the first half as he did in the entire previous two games, and four touchdown passes. Almost as shocking was the performance of an unknown rookie running back named Timmy Smith. Smith would be out of the league by 1989, rushing for only 602 yards in a three-year career, but on that day he ran for 204 yards and two touchdowns.
So it is “possible,” given a certain number of stars aligning at just the exact right moment, for a team as the Seahawks are currently composed to win a Super Bowl. But the odds are against them unless they do obtain an “elite” quarterback, or develop a top-rated defense. Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks beginning in 2000:
2000 Kurt Warner
2001 Trent Dilfer
2002 Tom Brady
2003 Brad Johnson
2004 Brady
2005 Brady
2006 Ben Roethlisberger
2007 Peyton Manning
2008 Eli Manning
2009 Roethlisberger
2010 Drew Brees
2011 Aaron Rodgers
Out of that group, all but Dilfer and Johnson are or were considered “elite” quarterbacks at some point in their careers. But in 2001, the Baltimore Ravens had what is considered one of the top defensive units in NFL history, and against the New York Giants they forced five turnovers and allowed only 178 yards of total offense. In 2003, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers intercepted five Rich Gannon passes, returning three for touchdowns; it’s kind of hard to lose a game that way.
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Speaking of teams with schizophrenic quarterback issues, how about Washington State? Jeff Tuel was supposed to have a “breakout” season, after “leading” the team to a 2-10 record last year; but an injury left him observing Marshall Lobbestael having his own “breakout” season. Tuel looked incompetent in his two starts this year; against Stanford, it would have made better sense (and fairer) to start Lobbestael, and if he was ineffective, then throw in Tuel. Tuel went on to look like the Tuel of last year in a blow-out loss to lowly Oregon State; on the other hand, Lobbestael certainly didn’t embarrass himself the following week against Oregon, like Tuel certainly would have. But even Lobbestael can’t handle “success” on a regular basis; last Saturday, Arizona State came in a double digit favorite on the road, and with Tuel already out, and Lobbestael ineffective early in the game, some freshman named Connor Halliday stepped in and blew the doors off ASU’s secondary, throwing for 494 yards in a 37-27 upset. Halliday’s numbers shouldn’t come as a complete shock, however; in mop-up duty against UNLV, he was 5 of 6 for 110 yards and 2 TDs.
Now coach Paul Wulff is confronted with the tricky problem of just what kind of judge of talent he is. He pretty much blew it with Tuel, and the three teams that Lobbestael could beat—Idaho State, UNLV and Colorado—combined have as many wins as ASU. He isn’t NFL material, so he can sit, and the team can prepare for next season by starting Halliday the rest of the year. I frankly don’t understand Wulff’s fascination with Tuel, who will be a senior next year; he was 2-10 as a starter last year and 0-2 this year. Perhaps unfortunately for Halliday, WSU still has a chance at a bowl game if they win their final two games, and one fears that Wulff isn’t going to embarrass the senior by insinuating that the team’s best chance to win is with the freshman.
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