Alabama’s total domination of LSU in the BCS title game only confirms my personal belief that there should be a rule that prevents two teams from the same conference from playing for the national championship. I support this notion for two reasons: One, these teams already played against each other, and familiarity with the opponent allows for greater specificity in game planning against the strengths and weaknesses of the other team. Whether Alabama was the better team all along, or LSU didn’t prepare for the game with any diligence, doesn’t change my opinion. If Alabama or LSU was obliged to prepare for a team with a scheme that it had not seen all season, the game might have been more entertaining.
The second reason for opposing two teams from the same conference in the championship game is because the assumption that the SEC has the best collection of teams is a matter of opinion, not necessarily of fact. Against non-conference opponents this season from the Big Ten, ACC, Big East, Pac 12, Big 12 and two other notable teams, BYU and Boise State, the SEC was 10-7. A winning record, but not the label of complete domination over other conferences that the sports media has tended to bestow upon the SEC. LSU beat Oregon and West Virgina, but Georgia lost to Boise State and Michigan State. The only non-conference opponent that Alabama played of note all year was Penn State. This may not necessarily be evidence that there is a bias in how the conferences are stacked up, but it would have been more informative if the SEC had the guts to play more than one Pac 12 or Big 12 team and their run and gun offenses.
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I don’t mind local sports commentators making merry at Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger expense as an injury diva, since it is not without cause. The broadcast of the game against Denver did so many close-ups of his injured foot that even Tim Tebow would get envious of all that attention. But the attention was unwarranted; if he wanted to play with that foot, then it was his problem, and the team’s. As one may recall, Jay Cutler took himself out of the NFC championship game last year, apparently because he thought he was “hurting” the team. If Roethlisberger was hurting the team, then it is the coach’s fault he stayed in the game. Or if he wasn’t hurting the team, then maybe his injury wasn’t as serious as all that.
Some people, while acknowledging that he was a tough guy, claim that Brett Favre was an injury diva, but people really don’t know the kind of injuries and their severity that he played with over the course of 297 straight career starts; most people do not know this, but Favre suffers from the same degenerative hip disease that ended Bo Jackson’s career. I did some research, and I found this fascinating article by Patrick Hruby of ESPN Page 2 after Favre’s consecutive start streak ended. The following is an edited version of the post, with additional odds and ends:
In his first season with Green Bay in 1992, Favre suffered a first-degree shoulder separation in a game against Chicago. Symptoms: “Soreness of movement when lifting your arm above your head.” Usual recovery time: 2 to 4 weeks. After work difficulties: Sleeping and getting dressed.
In 1993, Favre suffered a deep-thigh bruise against Tampa Bay. Functional issues: “Potentially very painful -- think the worst charley horse of all time. Standing, walking, using stairs and even sitting can be brutal, in part because sufferers can't always straighten their knees.” Usual recovery time: 1 to 6 weeks.
In 1994, Favre sustained a severely bruised left hip, or hip pointer. “‘It's very painful due to all the nerves that cross the hip ridge,’ says Dr. Cindy Trowbridge, clinical education director for the Athletic Training Education Program at the University of Texas at Arlington. ‘It hurts to breathe, laugh and even sit up.’” Usual recovery time: 1 to 6 weeks.
In week 9 of the 1995 season, Favre incurred a severely sprained left ankle in a game against Minnesota. Such a sprain “indicates complete tearing of the ligaments on the outside of the ankle, which swells badly and can no longer bear weight.” Usual recovery time: 2 to 3 months. The following week, Favre threw 5 touchdown passes against Chicago. In the season finale against Pittsburgh, Favre coughed up blood after a particularly brutal hit; Green Bay would, however, advance to the NFC title game, losing to Dallas.
In a preseason game in 1999, Favre sustained a sprained right thumb, which he played with the rest of the season. For normal people, the usual recovery period is 4 to 6 weeks.
In 2000, and again in his final season, Favre suffered from tendinitis in his right elbow. Its effect: “Reduced grip and wrist strength. Typically mild to moderate pain; the more you use the elbow joint -- practically speaking, the more you use your afflicted arm -- the more painful it becomes.” Usual recovery time: 4 to 12 weeks. The 2000 injury occurred in training camp, so Favre presumably played with this injury the entire season. Added to this, Favre played with a left foot sprain for much of the season.
In 2002, a week after the Packers defeated the defending Super Bowl champion New England 28-10 in the midst of a seven-game winning streak, Favre sustained a sprained lateral collateral ligament in his left knee against Washington. Usual recovery time is 6 to 12 weeks, but Favre maintained wearing a knee brace the rest of the year.
2003: Favre broke his right thumb against St. Louis in week 7. For normal people, the average recovery time is 6 weeks to 4 months. Typical treatment: “Arm placed in a cast for four to six weeks, followed by a splint for a few additional weeks. Next comes rehab to improve range of motion and strength.” Again, we are talking about normal human beings.
The never-ending cycle: In 2004, in Favre’s only memorable passing duel with Peyton Manning, the two combined for 753 yards passing and 9 TD passes. In that game Favre sustained a left hamstring bruise the size of a softball. "Normally, it starts as black and blue from bleeding within the muscle. Then it will turn yellow and green. What freaks most people out is that gravity starts pulling the blood down towards the feet, and bruising starts to occur in areas lower than where the injury occurred. That means there is some good muscle tearing happening." Usual recovery time is 6 weeks or more. Then against Dallas in week 7, Favre sprained his throwing hand; the usual procedure is to spend two weeks wearing a brace. Favre, of course, didn’t miss a beat.
In 2006, Favre injured his ulnar nerve in his right elbow. A severe injury of this nature can cause permanent paralysis of the hand. That Favre began suffering from bone spurs in his left ankle—a chronic condition that would plague him for the rest of his career.
A 2007 contest against Dallas featured two 10-1 teams; it also found Favre knocked out with a forearm injury, which affected his play the remainder of the year. This game is most notable for being the only “meaningful” playing time that Aaron Rodgers saw before 2008.
In 2008 as quarterback of the New York Jets, Favre tore his right biceps, which turned out to be the cause of his lackluster play the final five weeks of the season. Favre could still throw the ball, but the pain was enormous. He would eventually have a procedure done on his arm before he joined the Vikings in 2009.
In 2009, Favre pulled a groin preparing for his “return” to Lambeau Field, where he threw 4 TD passes in a 38-26 victory over the Packers. Later in the NFC Championship game, Favre suffered a brutal over-and-under hit that should have flagged, causing a stress fracture to his left ankle and fractured heel. Favre had off-season surgery on the ankle, but it was reinjured in 2010 against Green Bay in week 7. Favre continued to play with the injury.
The injury that finally ended Favre’s consecutive start streak in 2010 was a sprained sternoclavicular joint in his right shoulder. The effects of such and injury: “Very, very painful. Swelling and tenderness in the front of the chest. The SC joint attaches the collarbone to the breastbone -- in essence, the arm to the body -- which means most upper-body motions are affected. Worst case scenario: An unstable collarbone can compress major blood vessels, including the jugular vein and aorta.”
People don’t know half of what they think they know. Although Favre was paid $16 million to come back for another try in 2010, his “reluctance” could easily be misunderstood as something else.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Sunday, January 8, 2012
The "elite" quarterback question aka can Falcons pass "go" with Ryan?
Does a quarterback necessarily have to be “elite” to win a Super Bowl? And what exactly is an “elite” quarterback? In regard to the first question, we can answer in the affirmative since at least 1999, when Kurt Warner, Mike Martz and the St. Louis Rams ushered in the current NFL era, where a pass-first offense could roll over teams coached by men who were weaned on the ground-and-pound offenses of the 1960s and 70s. There were a few holdovers from the old days who managed a last gasp, like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Baltimore Ravens who relied on the run and a potent defense to overcome their deficiencies in the passing game; the 2007 New York Giants fit somewhere in the middle, with the Giants grinding through the playoffs almost in spite of Eli Manning. But they have been the exceptions. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are considered “elite” quarterbacks not because they can “manage” games, but because they can slice opposing defenses almost at will with their arms. With a few exceptions, every NFL team wants a quarterback who, when called upon, can overcome all obstacles when the matters look most dire, and nothing else seems to work. The Packers and the Patriots have lived almost exclusively on the pass this season; it takes an elite-level quarterback to run such offenses to overcome defensive schemes that target their one-dimensional nature.
But the problem is that quarterbacks who perform “elite” on a regular basis are rare. The 1991 draft demonstrated just how rare such quarterbacks are; that draft was so horrible that the one quarterback who amounted to anything in the NFL, Brett Favre, produced three-quarters of entire the statistical output of the combined class. However, sometimes a quarterback only has to be “elite” for a year, a maybe even a game—and sometimes only for a play. I have a hard time regarding Eli Manning as an “elite” quarterback, but in between the mostly pedestrian performances he can light it up the scoreboard at the most opportune times, and sometimes only a few plays are necessary, like the occasional long-distance hook-ups with Victor Cruz this year and that seem to arrive like a bolt of lightning and deflate the opposing team.
Other quarterbacks, who are considered on the “cusp,” just don’t seem to be able make that next leap, and there is a question if they ever will. I’m not talking about Mark Sanchez, who was saddled with a running game that produced 40 fewer yards per game than last year, one wide receiver who is a diva head case who dogged routes if he thought he wasn’t “involved,” and another one who after two years out of the league was too slow to get open or make plays on the ball; unlike some “better” quarterbacks, Sanchez actually stepped-up his performances in the playoffs, with a QB rating 20 points higher than the regular season, and 9 TD passes to 3 INTs in 6 games. Rather, the quarterbacks I am talking about are “franchise” players like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. On Sunday, Ryan again dudded-out, falling to 0-3 in playoff starts. To begin with, I’m not sure Ryan is as good as billed. I see him as someone who seldom throws the ball downfield willingly, preferring the “safe” dink-and-dunk passes. Atlanta has a better-than-average running game, but does Ryan “step-up” when the running game is ineffective? There is little evidence of that. Against the Giants, as was apparent in his previous two playoff starts, Ryan could barely function; yes, he was harassed most of the game, but he seldom seemed able to make that rapid, decisive action, repeatedly dumping the ball off for little gain. Ryan’s passer rating in the playoffs is a mere 71.2, a stat that hardly indicates his true ineffectiveness—only 584 yards on 70 pass completions; these are hardly what you want from a “franchise” quarterback.
The same goes for Flacco. Although Flacco is 4-3 in the playoffs, this is largely due to the defense holding opponents to an average of 10 points per game in those victories. Flacco himself has been more or less miserable: 61.6 passer rating , 4TDs to 7 INTS. Frankly, I don’t expect next week’s game against banged-up Houston to be instructive as to Flacco’s progress, but if Baltimore actually loses that game, I don’t think there should be any question that Flacco is an average quarterback who does just enough in the regular season, but simply doesn’t have the consistency or intangibles to beat the better teams that prepare for him. Another quarterback whose been receiving a great many accolades is Andy Dalton; but he remains a question mark, with a 1-7 record against teams with winning records.
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I want to take the time now to weigh-in on the Tim Tebow story. There is a lot of talk of his passing mechanics or lack therof, but there is a difference between throwing balls in traffic on short and medium routes, and throwing long balls to receivers who have separated themselves and nobody is likely to catch them except the receiver. Even if you complete only one-third of those passes, the chances that they will be converted into points is sometimes worth that risk. There was no way the Broncos were going to beat the Steelers unless Tebow could convert an occasional huge play, because he couldn’t convert on short passes on anything like a consistent basis. Most quarterbacks require 25 completions to reach 316 yards; Tebow needed only 10 pass completions (Think that’s impressive? In a game against the Colts in 1972, Joe Namath threw for 496 yards on just 15 pass completions—including TD passes of 80,79,67 and 65 yards). This can be a handicap if you are trying to eat-up clock, but the big play has the greater probability of a big pay-off, like the receiver getting behind the secondary and running 80 yards for a winning score. Tebow made relatively few plays against the Steelers, but the ones that he did make broke the back of the Steeler defense because of their deflating nature.
But the problem is that quarterbacks who perform “elite” on a regular basis are rare. The 1991 draft demonstrated just how rare such quarterbacks are; that draft was so horrible that the one quarterback who amounted to anything in the NFL, Brett Favre, produced three-quarters of entire the statistical output of the combined class. However, sometimes a quarterback only has to be “elite” for a year, a maybe even a game—and sometimes only for a play. I have a hard time regarding Eli Manning as an “elite” quarterback, but in between the mostly pedestrian performances he can light it up the scoreboard at the most opportune times, and sometimes only a few plays are necessary, like the occasional long-distance hook-ups with Victor Cruz this year and that seem to arrive like a bolt of lightning and deflate the opposing team.
Other quarterbacks, who are considered on the “cusp,” just don’t seem to be able make that next leap, and there is a question if they ever will. I’m not talking about Mark Sanchez, who was saddled with a running game that produced 40 fewer yards per game than last year, one wide receiver who is a diva head case who dogged routes if he thought he wasn’t “involved,” and another one who after two years out of the league was too slow to get open or make plays on the ball; unlike some “better” quarterbacks, Sanchez actually stepped-up his performances in the playoffs, with a QB rating 20 points higher than the regular season, and 9 TD passes to 3 INTs in 6 games. Rather, the quarterbacks I am talking about are “franchise” players like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. On Sunday, Ryan again dudded-out, falling to 0-3 in playoff starts. To begin with, I’m not sure Ryan is as good as billed. I see him as someone who seldom throws the ball downfield willingly, preferring the “safe” dink-and-dunk passes. Atlanta has a better-than-average running game, but does Ryan “step-up” when the running game is ineffective? There is little evidence of that. Against the Giants, as was apparent in his previous two playoff starts, Ryan could barely function; yes, he was harassed most of the game, but he seldom seemed able to make that rapid, decisive action, repeatedly dumping the ball off for little gain. Ryan’s passer rating in the playoffs is a mere 71.2, a stat that hardly indicates his true ineffectiveness—only 584 yards on 70 pass completions; these are hardly what you want from a “franchise” quarterback.
The same goes for Flacco. Although Flacco is 4-3 in the playoffs, this is largely due to the defense holding opponents to an average of 10 points per game in those victories. Flacco himself has been more or less miserable: 61.6 passer rating , 4TDs to 7 INTS. Frankly, I don’t expect next week’s game against banged-up Houston to be instructive as to Flacco’s progress, but if Baltimore actually loses that game, I don’t think there should be any question that Flacco is an average quarterback who does just enough in the regular season, but simply doesn’t have the consistency or intangibles to beat the better teams that prepare for him. Another quarterback whose been receiving a great many accolades is Andy Dalton; but he remains a question mark, with a 1-7 record against teams with winning records.
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I want to take the time now to weigh-in on the Tim Tebow story. There is a lot of talk of his passing mechanics or lack therof, but there is a difference between throwing balls in traffic on short and medium routes, and throwing long balls to receivers who have separated themselves and nobody is likely to catch them except the receiver. Even if you complete only one-third of those passes, the chances that they will be converted into points is sometimes worth that risk. There was no way the Broncos were going to beat the Steelers unless Tebow could convert an occasional huge play, because he couldn’t convert on short passes on anything like a consistent basis. Most quarterbacks require 25 completions to reach 316 yards; Tebow needed only 10 pass completions (Think that’s impressive? In a game against the Colts in 1972, Joe Namath threw for 496 yards on just 15 pass completions—including TD passes of 80,79,67 and 65 yards). This can be a handicap if you are trying to eat-up clock, but the big play has the greater probability of a big pay-off, like the receiver getting behind the secondary and running 80 yards for a winning score. Tebow made relatively few plays against the Steelers, but the ones that he did make broke the back of the Steeler defense because of their deflating nature.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
Shawn Kemp's "know-nothing" party
I happened to be listening to a sports radio program yesterday afternoon which featured retired Seattle Supersonics forward Shawn Kemp as a “guest” to contribute his own unique take on the topics of the day. After contributing a few lame clichés, Kemp became animated when hosts “Bob and Groz,” brought-up the topic of free agent first baseman Prince Fielder, and the likelihood he could wind-up in Seattle. Kemp was all for it, his reasoning that the team has too many foreign players and needed more “Americans” that “Americans” can identify with. I have to admit that this statement hit me like a bucket of ice water. What was he was referring to, and who were the people he thought shared his view? Was he talking about Latinos like Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda? Ichiro? There were 41 players who played at some point on the Mariner roster in 2011; seven were from Latin America (Jason Vargas is from California), one from Japan and one player from Canada. There were 32 “Americans” on the roster to “identify” with, if they were any good.
So what is Kemp talking about? I suspect that as a black man he is conscience of the fact that there hasn’t been a black American on the team who has been a local hero for at least a decade; and Kemp is certainly aware of complaints about the declining numbers of black American representation in baseball, a state of affairs that some players—like Torii Hunter—have scapegoated Latinos as the “cause” of. There are reasons for the declining interest in baseball by blacks, and none of them have anything to do with “foreign” players; but it is easier to blame someone else—and this is built into the new guidelines governing the recruitment of “foreign” players in the recently signed collective bargaining agreement. Are we allowed then to suspect that it is Kemp and the people he hangs out with that have this racial hang-up about Latinos? I once overheard this black Metro bus driver complain to one of his “brothers” that Latinos think that they are “on top” now because the most recent Census numbers indicate that there are more Latinos than blacks in the country. I mused to myself if he meant “on top” of the social dung heap.
There was no doubt Kemp’s statement had a racial, xenophobic element, and there was a noticeable silence before “Groz” finally offered that he was probably “right.” I’ll give “Groz” the benefit of the doubt; either he didn’t have time to process fully Kemp’s statement, or he didn’t want to embarrass Kemp by pointing out that some people might interpret his statement as racist. Or perhaps I shouldn’t even allow that; after Kemp left the set, there followed a brief discussion concerning Boomer Esiason’s “Chihuahua” comment concerning Mark Sanchez (who is Mexican-American), but then ensued the kind of debased commentary we’ve been hearing directed at Sanchez all year that commentators wouldn’t dare apply to another player for fear of being accused of some “ism.” It is interesting to note that Esiason is a frequent guest on Sean Hannity's Fox News show; most non-Fox News fans regard Hannity as a serial liar and bigot.
And since we are this subject, I might as well relate a discovery I made on the Internet. There was a video posted about a week ago on the Oshkosh (WI) Northwestern website. It featured a pale, blonde female named Brianne Lund, a student at UW-Green Bay and the current Miss Green Bay Area. She had something important on her mind that she just had to tell us, dripping with a tone of narcissistic vanity:
“This is me. I am who I am. I’m comfortable in my own skin, and I’m proud of my fair skin.”
She wasn’t auditioning for a face cream commercial, she was telling you matter-of-factly that was white, and she was wasn’t going to apologize for it. So why did she feel she had to defend her pale whiteness? Because she was, well, a racist and she didn't want to feel bad about it? I doubt that Lund actually posted this herself on the website; somebody probably discovered it somewhere and thought a person like her should be publicly exposed (there was another video of a Tea Party bus tour stop in Green Bay, apparently intended to make the participants look ridiculous). It reminded me of what I heard from this very pale, very blonde female student in a classroom at the southern university I attended. Right out of the blue and without any relation to what was being discussed in class, she blurted out that she wasn’t a racist, but she would never marry a black man. She just wouldn’t; but she wasn’t a racist. There room was silent. OK. And your point is??? I’m certain there are many people, particularly in the South, who feel the same way she did, but you don’t talk about it—it is just the way it is. But don’t tell us it has nothing to do with race; there is a very thin line between making decisions based on race, and racism, and she was trying to straddle that line to ease her conscience.
At any rate, Miss Green Bay Area’s hometown was Berlin, which like many small towns in Wisconsin was founded by German and Scandinavian immigrants; I spent my high school years in a town like this, which was as about as lily-white as they come, although in recent years there has been some slight demographic changes due mainly to Latino immigration. Berlin is 90 percent white, and like Lund of mostly of German extraction. Three-quarters of its non-white population is Latino. Having had to listen to the things I have just described, I can’t say I’m surprised by the racial attitude expressed by Ms. Lund.
So what is Kemp talking about? I suspect that as a black man he is conscience of the fact that there hasn’t been a black American on the team who has been a local hero for at least a decade; and Kemp is certainly aware of complaints about the declining numbers of black American representation in baseball, a state of affairs that some players—like Torii Hunter—have scapegoated Latinos as the “cause” of. There are reasons for the declining interest in baseball by blacks, and none of them have anything to do with “foreign” players; but it is easier to blame someone else—and this is built into the new guidelines governing the recruitment of “foreign” players in the recently signed collective bargaining agreement. Are we allowed then to suspect that it is Kemp and the people he hangs out with that have this racial hang-up about Latinos? I once overheard this black Metro bus driver complain to one of his “brothers” that Latinos think that they are “on top” now because the most recent Census numbers indicate that there are more Latinos than blacks in the country. I mused to myself if he meant “on top” of the social dung heap.
There was no doubt Kemp’s statement had a racial, xenophobic element, and there was a noticeable silence before “Groz” finally offered that he was probably “right.” I’ll give “Groz” the benefit of the doubt; either he didn’t have time to process fully Kemp’s statement, or he didn’t want to embarrass Kemp by pointing out that some people might interpret his statement as racist. Or perhaps I shouldn’t even allow that; after Kemp left the set, there followed a brief discussion concerning Boomer Esiason’s “Chihuahua” comment concerning Mark Sanchez (who is Mexican-American), but then ensued the kind of debased commentary we’ve been hearing directed at Sanchez all year that commentators wouldn’t dare apply to another player for fear of being accused of some “ism.” It is interesting to note that Esiason is a frequent guest on Sean Hannity's Fox News show; most non-Fox News fans regard Hannity as a serial liar and bigot.
And since we are this subject, I might as well relate a discovery I made on the Internet. There was a video posted about a week ago on the Oshkosh (WI) Northwestern website. It featured a pale, blonde female named Brianne Lund, a student at UW-Green Bay and the current Miss Green Bay Area. She had something important on her mind that she just had to tell us, dripping with a tone of narcissistic vanity:
“This is me. I am who I am. I’m comfortable in my own skin, and I’m proud of my fair skin.”
She wasn’t auditioning for a face cream commercial, she was telling you matter-of-factly that was white, and she was wasn’t going to apologize for it. So why did she feel she had to defend her pale whiteness? Because she was, well, a racist and she didn't want to feel bad about it? I doubt that Lund actually posted this herself on the website; somebody probably discovered it somewhere and thought a person like her should be publicly exposed (there was another video of a Tea Party bus tour stop in Green Bay, apparently intended to make the participants look ridiculous). It reminded me of what I heard from this very pale, very blonde female student in a classroom at the southern university I attended. Right out of the blue and without any relation to what was being discussed in class, she blurted out that she wasn’t a racist, but she would never marry a black man. She just wouldn’t; but she wasn’t a racist. There room was silent. OK. And your point is??? I’m certain there are many people, particularly in the South, who feel the same way she did, but you don’t talk about it—it is just the way it is. But don’t tell us it has nothing to do with race; there is a very thin line between making decisions based on race, and racism, and she was trying to straddle that line to ease her conscience.
At any rate, Miss Green Bay Area’s hometown was Berlin, which like many small towns in Wisconsin was founded by German and Scandinavian immigrants; I spent my high school years in a town like this, which was as about as lily-white as they come, although in recent years there has been some slight demographic changes due mainly to Latino immigration. Berlin is 90 percent white, and like Lund of mostly of German extraction. Three-quarters of its non-white population is Latino. Having had to listen to the things I have just described, I can’t say I’m surprised by the racial attitude expressed by Ms. Lund.
Quarterback go-round
The problem with the arguments of some people in regard the Seattle Seahawks’ quarterback options is that if you are going to take Matt Flynn off the table merely because someone “Trent Dilfer) says he needs to be on a “throw first” team, you are also including Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees in that group. And might as well include Andrew Luck as well. Luck doesn’t want to go to a place like Seattle where the “system,” if played according to Pete Carroll’s plan, will require him to hand the ball off two out of every three plays. Luck will have visions in his mind of being an “elite”-level quarterback—meaning the Manning, Rodgers, Brees and Brady numbers. If we believe Carroll, he will not be the “focus” of the offense, let alone the team. Anything else will be a waste of his talent—and may lead to a regression in his play.
I did find interesting that Mike Salk was talking-up Russell Wilson as a possible Seahawk, likely as an alternative to Flynn if Luck and Robert Griffin III are unattainable. I grew-up in Wisconsin and I remain a Big Ten guy, and I pay attention to what’s going on with the Badgers. I recall all the buzz around Wilson when he arrived in Madison this past summer, and how high expectations were—that Badgers now had that quarterback who was going to lead them to a national championship. I admit I was wondering who this guy was that I had never heard of, and who the locals were making out to be another Cam Newton (in spirit if not in size). But Wilson impressed early, and unlike last year, the Badgers played at a consistently high level on offense. Wilson wound-up having statistically the best season ever for a Badger quarterback. There were two disappointing losses in conference play against Michigan State and Ohio State, in which Wilson almost pulled victories out of a hat in fourth quarter comebacks after sluggish play for three quarters; a lot of people, however, questioned coach Bret Bielema's clock management and use of timeouts—especially in the Rose Bowl when two timeouts were wasted early in the third quarter, which turned out to be critical mistakes. Would I be interested to see Wilson in Seattle? Why not as a mid-round pick? He’s not likely to go higher than that. There is a fifty-fifty chance that a player with his poise, movement and arm could make him quarterback material in the NFl, but more likely his size (“officially” 5-11) will destine him to back-up status; I also see him as a step or two below Flynn as starter material.
Another thing that should be looked at before drafting a quarterback like, say, Robert Griffin III (who is the kind that always looks good in college) is whether you are getting a quarterback whose instinct after the first read is to run with the ball. There is a fascinating book, “Strong Arm Tactics: A Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Professional Quarterback” by John Maxymuk, which tells us that teams with running quarterbacks are less likely to go to the playoffs, and when they do, less likely to advance past the divisional round. Running quarterbacks are also injury prone, and worse, resistant to coaching. Cam Newton may be that exceptional talent where these debits have minimal impact, insofar that his size and athleticism allows him to out-physical any opponent, or so he believes. Other quarterbacks with reputations as runners, like John Elway and Steve Young, eventually won Super Bowls, but that came long after their best running days were behind them.
What about Griffin? I’ve done my research, and I discovered that Griffin liked to run as much as pass coming out of high school. As a freshman at Baylor, he threw for 2000 yards and led the team in rush attempts and rushing yards. Since then his ratio of passing yards to rushing yards has gone up. The reason for this appears to be because he was forced to change his style. Why? Because early in his sophomore year he tore an ACL, and he sat out most of the year; of course few people seem to know this because he’s only appeared in the public consciousness since this past October. Perhaps fear of reinjuring the knee (a second torn ACL on the same knee often ends a player's career) led to more work on Griffin’s passing skills and less on the running, and there has been obvious improvement in that area. If Griffin thinks he is a one-man playmaker like Newton, the question is how long can he last against NFL defenses, since he is not the same physical specimen. As I suggested the other day, he might not be someone Carroll wants to waste draft picks on to get, if indeed he is looking for a quarterback (like Flynn) who has the intangibles and has shown an ability to perform against top NFL teams—and is still at a point where he is not the headcase who can’t be “molded” to fit into another “system.” Flynn has shown that he is highly coachable and has obviously shown the ability to absorb and excel in a “system” markedly different than the one he played in college. This should only be the more obvious when one realizes that Flynn’s predecessor at LSU—JaMarcus Russell—was one of the biggest busts in NFL history, unable to absorb and adapt to a pro-style offense.
Another tiresome excuse for not seriously considering Flynn is he is still an “unknown,” as if people don’t want to believe their own eyes. The same thing could be said about any quarterback coming out of college, but at least there is a sample of NFL play from to extrapolate from. I mentioned once before that I watched Tarvaris Jackson in a late season game against the Packers in 2006, and wondering if the Vikings could possibly be serious about this guy; the Packers were unable to move the ball most of the game, yet T-Jack kept them in the game with inept play until the Packers finally put together a drive at the end that led to a game-winning field goal. In 2011 Jackson is still in the league, so his “unknowns” is known to everyone but the Seahawks. While he has shown improvement of a sort, Jackson has never approached having the kind of performances that Flynn has had in just two starts. Numbers like 480 yards and 6 TDs in a game are real and tangible evidence that Flynn has top-end talent if utilized correctly.
NFL history has been littered with examples of other “unknown” quantities at quarterback. Kurt Warner was 28 years old when after a career in the Arena league and sitting on the bench as a third-stringer for a year before coming out of nowhere to set the NFL aflame and win a Super Bowl. Steve Young started out with Tampa Bay in unimpressive fashion before his HOF career, waiting out Montana for years before he got his chance in San Francisco. As a rookie, Johnny Unitas was cut by the Steelers because the coach thought he we wasn't "smart enough." Jerry Kramer remarked on how in the beginning Bart Starr reminded him of methane gas, because he was "colorless, odorless and tasteless--virtually invisible." That was before Lombardi arrived to revive a 1-10 team. Starr was an example of how a coach like McCarthy can mold a player like Flynn who exists in the shadows, who draft scouts downgraded because he didn't play in a pro-style offense at LSU. I kind of laugh at people who compare him to Kolb and Cassell, when a more apt comparison is to Rodgers and his situation, when he had no starts and one meaningful appearance in three years.
I did find interesting that Mike Salk was talking-up Russell Wilson as a possible Seahawk, likely as an alternative to Flynn if Luck and Robert Griffin III are unattainable. I grew-up in Wisconsin and I remain a Big Ten guy, and I pay attention to what’s going on with the Badgers. I recall all the buzz around Wilson when he arrived in Madison this past summer, and how high expectations were—that Badgers now had that quarterback who was going to lead them to a national championship. I admit I was wondering who this guy was that I had never heard of, and who the locals were making out to be another Cam Newton (in spirit if not in size). But Wilson impressed early, and unlike last year, the Badgers played at a consistently high level on offense. Wilson wound-up having statistically the best season ever for a Badger quarterback. There were two disappointing losses in conference play against Michigan State and Ohio State, in which Wilson almost pulled victories out of a hat in fourth quarter comebacks after sluggish play for three quarters; a lot of people, however, questioned coach Bret Bielema's clock management and use of timeouts—especially in the Rose Bowl when two timeouts were wasted early in the third quarter, which turned out to be critical mistakes. Would I be interested to see Wilson in Seattle? Why not as a mid-round pick? He’s not likely to go higher than that. There is a fifty-fifty chance that a player with his poise, movement and arm could make him quarterback material in the NFl, but more likely his size (“officially” 5-11) will destine him to back-up status; I also see him as a step or two below Flynn as starter material.
Another thing that should be looked at before drafting a quarterback like, say, Robert Griffin III (who is the kind that always looks good in college) is whether you are getting a quarterback whose instinct after the first read is to run with the ball. There is a fascinating book, “Strong Arm Tactics: A Historical and Statistical Analysis of the Professional Quarterback” by John Maxymuk, which tells us that teams with running quarterbacks are less likely to go to the playoffs, and when they do, less likely to advance past the divisional round. Running quarterbacks are also injury prone, and worse, resistant to coaching. Cam Newton may be that exceptional talent where these debits have minimal impact, insofar that his size and athleticism allows him to out-physical any opponent, or so he believes. Other quarterbacks with reputations as runners, like John Elway and Steve Young, eventually won Super Bowls, but that came long after their best running days were behind them.
What about Griffin? I’ve done my research, and I discovered that Griffin liked to run as much as pass coming out of high school. As a freshman at Baylor, he threw for 2000 yards and led the team in rush attempts and rushing yards. Since then his ratio of passing yards to rushing yards has gone up. The reason for this appears to be because he was forced to change his style. Why? Because early in his sophomore year he tore an ACL, and he sat out most of the year; of course few people seem to know this because he’s only appeared in the public consciousness since this past October. Perhaps fear of reinjuring the knee (a second torn ACL on the same knee often ends a player's career) led to more work on Griffin’s passing skills and less on the running, and there has been obvious improvement in that area. If Griffin thinks he is a one-man playmaker like Newton, the question is how long can he last against NFL defenses, since he is not the same physical specimen. As I suggested the other day, he might not be someone Carroll wants to waste draft picks on to get, if indeed he is looking for a quarterback (like Flynn) who has the intangibles and has shown an ability to perform against top NFL teams—and is still at a point where he is not the headcase who can’t be “molded” to fit into another “system.” Flynn has shown that he is highly coachable and has obviously shown the ability to absorb and excel in a “system” markedly different than the one he played in college. This should only be the more obvious when one realizes that Flynn’s predecessor at LSU—JaMarcus Russell—was one of the biggest busts in NFL history, unable to absorb and adapt to a pro-style offense.
Another tiresome excuse for not seriously considering Flynn is he is still an “unknown,” as if people don’t want to believe their own eyes. The same thing could be said about any quarterback coming out of college, but at least there is a sample of NFL play from to extrapolate from. I mentioned once before that I watched Tarvaris Jackson in a late season game against the Packers in 2006, and wondering if the Vikings could possibly be serious about this guy; the Packers were unable to move the ball most of the game, yet T-Jack kept them in the game with inept play until the Packers finally put together a drive at the end that led to a game-winning field goal. In 2011 Jackson is still in the league, so his “unknowns” is known to everyone but the Seahawks. While he has shown improvement of a sort, Jackson has never approached having the kind of performances that Flynn has had in just two starts. Numbers like 480 yards and 6 TDs in a game are real and tangible evidence that Flynn has top-end talent if utilized correctly.
NFL history has been littered with examples of other “unknown” quantities at quarterback. Kurt Warner was 28 years old when after a career in the Arena league and sitting on the bench as a third-stringer for a year before coming out of nowhere to set the NFL aflame and win a Super Bowl. Steve Young started out with Tampa Bay in unimpressive fashion before his HOF career, waiting out Montana for years before he got his chance in San Francisco. As a rookie, Johnny Unitas was cut by the Steelers because the coach thought he we wasn't "smart enough." Jerry Kramer remarked on how in the beginning Bart Starr reminded him of methane gas, because he was "colorless, odorless and tasteless--virtually invisible." That was before Lombardi arrived to revive a 1-10 team. Starr was an example of how a coach like McCarthy can mold a player like Flynn who exists in the shadows, who draft scouts downgraded because he didn't play in a pro-style offense at LSU. I kind of laugh at people who compare him to Kolb and Cassell, when a more apt comparison is to Rodgers and his situation, when he had no starts and one meaningful appearance in three years.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
Pete Carroll's quarterback of the future plans mysterious
I understand why some local sports commentators like Mike Salk are so caught-up in their fantasy of the Seattle Seahawks drafting that 15-year, 4,000 yards-a-season “franchise” quarterback. I've felt the same way, and my fantasy came true; Green Bay Packers fans should be mindful that a “franchise” quarterback like Brett Favre falls into their lap so rarely that they should think twice before abusing his memory. Favre saved this franchise from perpetual mediocrity, and now winning is almost taken for granted thanks to the foundation of success that rested on Favre's cannon arm (Favre had only one losing season in 16 years). It seems, however, that Seahawks coach Pete Carroll does not necessarily share Salk’s fantasy; in fact, during his end-of-the-season press conference, he suggested that it was easy to find a quarterback capable of starting in the NFL, and for his “system,” that quarterback didn’t need to be an “elite” quarterback. In fact, he didn’t want a quarterback who was the focus of the offense, let alone the team; the foundation of his team would be the defense (Carroll was a defensive coordinator in a previous life) and the running game. His quarterback needs to have sound judgment, and when called upon, be able to run a two-minute offense under pressure. He didn’t need an Andrew Luck, or even a Robert Griffin III; a Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco would do just fine, even if neither of those two quarterbacks have been impressive in their playoff appearances. One suspects that the reason for this is that Carroll wants a quarterback without his own notions about how to best employ his abilities, but a young guy who he can mold to fit into his “system.”
In the meantime, I found myself increasingly frustrated by the suggestion that Matt Flynn was only a “marginal” improvement over Tarvaris Jackson, which I found absurd. But on the other side of the dial, Kevin Harlan from Westwood One Radio was confirming for Dave “Softy” Mahler that Matt Flynn can start and be a star now; in fact he thinks only Andrew Luck is the better option at quarterback this off-season. Harlan thinks it is a “no-brainer” for the Seahawks to go hard for Flynn, considering his relationship with John Schneider. He laughed out loud at comparisons to Kevin Kolb; Kolb isn’t even in the same conversation with Flynn, he said. He was been exposed to, absorbed and excelled in the best offensive “system” in the NFL—and against one great team and another that forced him to match the opponent throw for throw right down to the end. Harlan also seems to think that he can excel in Darrell Bevell’s “system.” Bucky Brooks over at NFL.com also seemed fascinated by Flynn; he wrote a post expressing his impression from the Lions game, that it demonstrated that Flynn has the aptitude, arm, pocket presence, athleticism and clutch factor to potentially be a franchise-caliber quarterback.
What does the professor think now? John Clayton gave Flynn the Week 17 game ball for best offensive performance, and intimated on another radio show that Flynn was not just a possibility for the Seahawks, but in fact suggested that the Seahawks decision on the future of the quarterback position could come down to Flynn or Oklahoma State’s Brandon Wheedon. Carroll himself was coy about Flynn on the Brock and Salk show; he had, after all, painted himself into a corner by inflating Jackson. As Clayton pointed out, signing Flynn would bring the expectation that he would be the starting quarterback.
In the meantime, I found myself increasingly frustrated by the suggestion that Matt Flynn was only a “marginal” improvement over Tarvaris Jackson, which I found absurd. But on the other side of the dial, Kevin Harlan from Westwood One Radio was confirming for Dave “Softy” Mahler that Matt Flynn can start and be a star now; in fact he thinks only Andrew Luck is the better option at quarterback this off-season. Harlan thinks it is a “no-brainer” for the Seahawks to go hard for Flynn, considering his relationship with John Schneider. He laughed out loud at comparisons to Kevin Kolb; Kolb isn’t even in the same conversation with Flynn, he said. He was been exposed to, absorbed and excelled in the best offensive “system” in the NFL—and against one great team and another that forced him to match the opponent throw for throw right down to the end. Harlan also seems to think that he can excel in Darrell Bevell’s “system.” Bucky Brooks over at NFL.com also seemed fascinated by Flynn; he wrote a post expressing his impression from the Lions game, that it demonstrated that Flynn has the aptitude, arm, pocket presence, athleticism and clutch factor to potentially be a franchise-caliber quarterback.
What does the professor think now? John Clayton gave Flynn the Week 17 game ball for best offensive performance, and intimated on another radio show that Flynn was not just a possibility for the Seahawks, but in fact suggested that the Seahawks decision on the future of the quarterback position could come down to Flynn or Oklahoma State’s Brandon Wheedon. Carroll himself was coy about Flynn on the Brock and Salk show; he had, after all, painted himself into a corner by inflating Jackson. As Clayton pointed out, signing Flynn would bring the expectation that he would be the starting quarterback.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Football notes
The regular season that the Green Bay Packers have just completed looks on the standings page mighty impressive. Like even the fabled Dallas Cowboys franchise, the Packers never won more than 13 games in the regular season, and this year they were one touchdown more or less from completing a perfect season. Wander away from the standings onto the statistics page, the Packers’ 15-1 record is even more impressive in its seeming improbability. Despite the fact that the Packers set a team record in total offense—6482 yards—they also set a new team record for most yards allowed on defense: 6585 yards, “beating out” the New England Patriots by 8 yards for the dubious “honor” of being last in the NFL (the Baltimore Colts still have ownership of the most yards allowed, 6,793 in 1981). While the Packers finished third in net passing yards (4924), they set another NFL record by allowing 4796 yards passing, thanks to Matthew Stafford’s 500-yard game in the season finale. Yet the Packers still managed a point differential of 201 (560-359). How did they manage to win so many games with such a porous defense? Turnovers; the Packers’ defense intercepted 31 opponent passes, compared to only 8 by their own offense. It would seem that Packers’ defense is manned by free agent ballhawkers instead of tacklers—a by-product of the no-touch rules governing pass receivers.
Other notes: The Packers 560 points were the most scored by an NFC team; Aaron Rodgers’ 122.5 quarterback rating is a new NFL record, but propelled by his “jaw-dropping” performance against Detroit, Matt Flynn’s 124.8 rating for the season raised the team rating to 122.6. The Packers are also in the NFL record book for being a party to a 1000 gross yards passing in a single game against Detroit, and 971 net passing yards. Although the sitting of Rodgers in the finale allowed Drew Brees to squeak by his 45 TD passes to set a new NFC mark (46), Flynn’s 6 TD passes allowed the Packers to tie Indianapolis’ record for the most team TD passes in a season (51). Flynn’s 518 yards added to Rodgers’ team record 4643 yards gave the Packers’ 5161 gross yards passing for the year, allowing them to join three other teams this season to pass the 5,000-yard threshold. Rodgers also set team marks for 300-yard games (8), while Flynn engraved his name in the team record books by passing Lynn Dickey’s long-standing single game passing yards mark, with 480 yards against Detroit; he was also the first Packer to throw 6 TD passes in a game (Brett Favre also threw 6 TD passes, but for the New York Jets).
I want to remark on the New Orleans Saints offensive prowess. Their 7474 total yards and 467.1 per game average are NFL records, as is their 5347 net yards passing and 334.2 yards per game. It may come as a surprise, however, that the Saints 5505 gross yards passing just barely added to the previous mark of 5492 set by the St. Louis Rams’ Kurt Warner and Trent Green in the 2000 season. But their offense was more “balanced” that it would seem at first blush, certainly more so than the Packers. The Saints 2127 yards rushing was 6th in the NFL. Truly formidable, but as the Seattle Seahawks demonstrated last year, you can still outscore them, and Mathew Stafford likes to throw the ball around as much as the stat-happy Brees, who threw for 300+ yards in all but three of his starts and 7 straight—both NFL records. Some people are now saying that because of Flynn’s performance, some MVP votes will be shed from Rodgers to Brees; but as ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert pointed out, Rodgers was more productive per pass attempt than Brees—meaning that the latter had to throw more passes to have the same effect. Throw in Flynn’s numbers, Brees’ needed 103 more pass attempts to gain 315 more yards—and had five fewer touchdown passes. This also points to the fact that the Packers overall had the most efficient offense in the league this season.
Other notes: The Packers 560 points were the most scored by an NFC team; Aaron Rodgers’ 122.5 quarterback rating is a new NFL record, but propelled by his “jaw-dropping” performance against Detroit, Matt Flynn’s 124.8 rating for the season raised the team rating to 122.6. The Packers are also in the NFL record book for being a party to a 1000 gross yards passing in a single game against Detroit, and 971 net passing yards. Although the sitting of Rodgers in the finale allowed Drew Brees to squeak by his 45 TD passes to set a new NFC mark (46), Flynn’s 6 TD passes allowed the Packers to tie Indianapolis’ record for the most team TD passes in a season (51). Flynn’s 518 yards added to Rodgers’ team record 4643 yards gave the Packers’ 5161 gross yards passing for the year, allowing them to join three other teams this season to pass the 5,000-yard threshold. Rodgers also set team marks for 300-yard games (8), while Flynn engraved his name in the team record books by passing Lynn Dickey’s long-standing single game passing yards mark, with 480 yards against Detroit; he was also the first Packer to throw 6 TD passes in a game (Brett Favre also threw 6 TD passes, but for the New York Jets).
I want to remark on the New Orleans Saints offensive prowess. Their 7474 total yards and 467.1 per game average are NFL records, as is their 5347 net yards passing and 334.2 yards per game. It may come as a surprise, however, that the Saints 5505 gross yards passing just barely added to the previous mark of 5492 set by the St. Louis Rams’ Kurt Warner and Trent Green in the 2000 season. But their offense was more “balanced” that it would seem at first blush, certainly more so than the Packers. The Saints 2127 yards rushing was 6th in the NFL. Truly formidable, but as the Seattle Seahawks demonstrated last year, you can still outscore them, and Mathew Stafford likes to throw the ball around as much as the stat-happy Brees, who threw for 300+ yards in all but three of his starts and 7 straight—both NFL records. Some people are now saying that because of Flynn’s performance, some MVP votes will be shed from Rodgers to Brees; but as ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert pointed out, Rodgers was more productive per pass attempt than Brees—meaning that the latter had to throw more passes to have the same effect. Throw in Flynn’s numbers, Brees’ needed 103 more pass attempts to gain 315 more yards—and had five fewer touchdown passes. This also points to the fact that the Packers overall had the most efficient offense in the league this season.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Matt Flynn schools the professor
The Green Bay Packers were supposed to “pack it in” against the Detroit Lions on Sunday, just like they were supposed to mail it in against the New England Patriots last year. Golden Boy Aaron Rodgers was going to play a few series or sit out this game altogether, but just as he did last year, coach Mike McCarthy was emphatic that “We are playing to win.” Nobody believed him; it was just bluster to keep the morale of the troops up. Last season, when the pre-game television analysts made their outcome predictions, they all laughed and said the Packers were going to be blown into the next universe. This weekend, they still didn’t take McCarthy seriously when said the team intended to win; no Rodgers, no chance. Instead, this game was supposed to be Lions’ quarterback Mathew Stafford’s moment to shine—albeit against mainly second-stringers.
Now, I’m probably Packer back-up quarterback Matt Flynn’s biggest booster in town, but I have to admit that heading into last year’s Patriots game, I didn’t really know much about him or what he was capable of. He played one season of college ball, leading LSU to a national title, but he wasn’t highly rated because of LSU’s non-pro-style offence. Flynn was a “project,” but one management saw possibilities in. He went the Packers’ quarterback “academy,” but how much his skills had become NFL ready was a mystery to most virtually everyone outside the organization. Flynn’s first significant playing time came a week before the Patriots game; Rodgers, who was ineffective in the first half, was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Flynn played the entire second half, and although he led the team on only one scoring drive, Flynn at least seemed more effective at moving the ball up and down the field, throwing for 176 yards. But given sufficient preparation, what I saw from Flynn against the Patriots was not some nobody who would be flustered and frustrated playing against what is assumed to be the most dominant franchise in the past decade, coached by a defensive mastermind ready to eat alive a young quarterback with no reputation and even less experience. What no one apparently knew was that this young quarterback was trained and coached to win ball games, not just be a placeholder. McCarthy was confident enough in his quarterback training regimen that he expected Flynn to not just acquit himself respectably, but to give the team a chance to win. And that is exactly what Flynn did against the mighty Patriots, with the outcome of the game still in question until the final moments.
That was last year. The “experts” seemed to forget that Flynn was fearless in the pocket and had the poise of a veteran. Against Detroit on Sunday, I expected a “respectable” 300-yard, 3-TD performance. Instead, Flynn exceeded even my expectations. Flynn didn’t flinch after the opening series sack-and-fumble, and after working out the rust midway in the second quarter, there was no stopping him. Repeatedly down against the Lions, Flynn countered punch for punch. Down 16-10, Flynn threw a dart to Ryan Grant as he was being knocked backwards that ended in an 80-yard touchdown pass. I saw a quarterback with tremendous field vision (for a supposedly “short” quarterback) who caught even the aging Donald Driver in a window where he could have walked into the end zone on crutches. He threw a perfect ball 50-yards in the air late in the game that effortlessly dropped into James Jones hands as if it was parachuted in; this came after another deflating touchdown drive by Stafford with less than three minutes to play that put the Lions ahead again. I saw Stafford on the sidelines, acting the arrogant punk who thought the game was over. Instead, Flynn coolly led the team in a two-minute offense with the confident ease of a Tom Brady—something we still haven’t seen from Rodgers. When all was said and done, Flynn again “surprised” the experts with a franchise record-setting performance, his 480 passing yards drilling Lynn Dickey’s previous team mark, while becoming the first Packer to throw 6 touchdown passes in a game.
Now the question is whether some of his naysayers, like John Clayton—who on one of the late night ESPN radio shows could only say that he was impressed by Stafford’s refusal to quit, when it was Flynn who was supposed to wilt under the pressure—can bring themselves to admit there was something they had missed about Flynn. Some have simply dismissed his performance as a fluke and a product of Detroit's poor secondary, but Flynn's output surpassed by a wide margin the two previous highs allowed by the Lions--Carson Palmer's 367 and Drew Brees' 342 yards passing. Playing with other back-ups against the Lions’ starters, Flynn seemed to verify the observation of Packer insiders that Flynn sometimes ran the offense better than Rodgers in practice and the preseason. I feel completely vindicated in my confidence in Flynn as not just a good starting quarterback, but a Pro Bowl-caliber talent. For teams like Seattle—where Flynn already has a relationship with the GM—who likely won’t be able to draft that “franchise” quarterback this year, Flynn should be more than a serious option. After all, this team has never drafted a quality quarterback—and coming from a quality program like Green Bay, Flynn seems ready to take flight wherever he lands this off-season.
Now, I’m probably Packer back-up quarterback Matt Flynn’s biggest booster in town, but I have to admit that heading into last year’s Patriots game, I didn’t really know much about him or what he was capable of. He played one season of college ball, leading LSU to a national title, but he wasn’t highly rated because of LSU’s non-pro-style offence. Flynn was a “project,” but one management saw possibilities in. He went the Packers’ quarterback “academy,” but how much his skills had become NFL ready was a mystery to most virtually everyone outside the organization. Flynn’s first significant playing time came a week before the Patriots game; Rodgers, who was ineffective in the first half, was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Flynn played the entire second half, and although he led the team on only one scoring drive, Flynn at least seemed more effective at moving the ball up and down the field, throwing for 176 yards. But given sufficient preparation, what I saw from Flynn against the Patriots was not some nobody who would be flustered and frustrated playing against what is assumed to be the most dominant franchise in the past decade, coached by a defensive mastermind ready to eat alive a young quarterback with no reputation and even less experience. What no one apparently knew was that this young quarterback was trained and coached to win ball games, not just be a placeholder. McCarthy was confident enough in his quarterback training regimen that he expected Flynn to not just acquit himself respectably, but to give the team a chance to win. And that is exactly what Flynn did against the mighty Patriots, with the outcome of the game still in question until the final moments.
That was last year. The “experts” seemed to forget that Flynn was fearless in the pocket and had the poise of a veteran. Against Detroit on Sunday, I expected a “respectable” 300-yard, 3-TD performance. Instead, Flynn exceeded even my expectations. Flynn didn’t flinch after the opening series sack-and-fumble, and after working out the rust midway in the second quarter, there was no stopping him. Repeatedly down against the Lions, Flynn countered punch for punch. Down 16-10, Flynn threw a dart to Ryan Grant as he was being knocked backwards that ended in an 80-yard touchdown pass. I saw a quarterback with tremendous field vision (for a supposedly “short” quarterback) who caught even the aging Donald Driver in a window where he could have walked into the end zone on crutches. He threw a perfect ball 50-yards in the air late in the game that effortlessly dropped into James Jones hands as if it was parachuted in; this came after another deflating touchdown drive by Stafford with less than three minutes to play that put the Lions ahead again. I saw Stafford on the sidelines, acting the arrogant punk who thought the game was over. Instead, Flynn coolly led the team in a two-minute offense with the confident ease of a Tom Brady—something we still haven’t seen from Rodgers. When all was said and done, Flynn again “surprised” the experts with a franchise record-setting performance, his 480 passing yards drilling Lynn Dickey’s previous team mark, while becoming the first Packer to throw 6 touchdown passes in a game.
Now the question is whether some of his naysayers, like John Clayton—who on one of the late night ESPN radio shows could only say that he was impressed by Stafford’s refusal to quit, when it was Flynn who was supposed to wilt under the pressure—can bring themselves to admit there was something they had missed about Flynn. Some have simply dismissed his performance as a fluke and a product of Detroit's poor secondary, but Flynn's output surpassed by a wide margin the two previous highs allowed by the Lions--Carson Palmer's 367 and Drew Brees' 342 yards passing. Playing with other back-ups against the Lions’ starters, Flynn seemed to verify the observation of Packer insiders that Flynn sometimes ran the offense better than Rodgers in practice and the preseason. I feel completely vindicated in my confidence in Flynn as not just a good starting quarterback, but a Pro Bowl-caliber talent. For teams like Seattle—where Flynn already has a relationship with the GM—who likely won’t be able to draft that “franchise” quarterback this year, Flynn should be more than a serious option. After all, this team has never drafted a quality quarterback—and coming from a quality program like Green Bay, Flynn seems ready to take flight wherever he lands this off-season.
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